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La victoire des talibans marquera-t-elle le début de la fin de l’empire occidental ?

Le simple fait de compter le coût de l’intervention occidentale en Afghanistan en vies militaires américaines ou britanniques constitue la preuve ultime que nous sommes une civilisation en décomposition
 
David Hearst

Partie 4 - Un message glaçant
 
Tout cela envoie un message glaçant aux princes et généraux du Moyen-Orient qui tiendraient moins longtemps qu’Ashraf Ghani si les États-Unis retiraient leurs forces ou leur soutien militaire. Les cours royales de Riyad, Abou Dabi et Amman ainsi que le palais présidentiel du Caire doivent se demander combien de semaines ils tiendraient si une insurrection populaire islamiste venait toquer à leur porte.

On se souvient des propos célèbres de l’ancien président américain Donald Trump, qui a affirmé que l’Arabie saoudite tiendrait deux semaines en cas de départ des États-Unis.

Il ne plaisantait pas. 

Si l’armée afghane ne s’est pas battue pour Ashraf Ghani, le prince héritier saoudien et ministre de la Défense Mohammed ben Salmane pense-t-il que la Garde nationale, dont il a régulièrement purgé les généraux de haut rang, prendra les armes pour lui ?

L’analyste politique et universitaire saoudien Khalid al-Dakhil s’est exprimé sur Twitter : « La chute de Kaboul aux mains des talibans a fait frémir certains, qui ont exprimé des théories du complot et leur peur d’un retour de l’islam politique dans la région. Avoir peur et anticiper, c’est faire preuve de prudence et de vivacité. Mais rester effrayé pendant des décennies et des décennies, c’est faire preuve de fragilité et d’un manque de perspicacité. Quant aux théories du complot, elles ne sont rien d’autre que des outils de politique et de conflit. Elles n’expliquent donc pas l’histoire et son évolution. »

Les théories du complot évoquées par Khalid al-Dakhil laissent entendre que les Américains et les islamistes travaillent main dans la main, des soupçons que les Saoudiens nourrissaient déjà envers l’ancien président américain Barack Obama lorsqu’il a abandonné le défunt président égyptien Hosni Moubarak lors du soulèvement du 25 janvier 2011. Mais en réalité, la relation entre les États-Unis et les islamistes est plus tendue que celle qu’ils entretiennent avec certains tyrans et groupes laïcs ou religieux.

Lorsque des islamistes combattent les soldats américains, les États-Unis finiront par discuter avec eux, comme ils l’ont fait avec les talibans lors des rencontres de Doha, et accepteront la défaite, comme ils le font actuellement à Kaboul.

Mais si un mouvement islamiste, comme le Hamas, déclare ouvertement que son combat n’est pas contre les États-Unis et qu’il n’a pas tué un seul soldat américain, Washington ignorera que le Hamas a proposé un cessez-le-feu à long terme, le classera en tant qu’organisation terroriste, empêchera toute autre faction palestinienne de former un gouvernement d’unité avec lui et fera tout son possible pour assiéger Gaza.

Les États-Unis feront de même avec les islamistes qui évitent la violence et optent pour des élections, la démocratie et des Parlements. Ces personnes, les États-Unis tenteront de les interdire.

Il y a huit ans, lorsque l’armée égyptienne a organisé le pire massacre de civils non armés depuis les manifestations de la place Tian’anmen en dispersant violemment un sit-in sur la place Rabia au Caire, Obama est littéralement retourné à sa partie de golf. Lorsqu’un mois plus tôt, le président égyptien Abdel Fattah al-Sissi a organisé un coup d’État militaire, Obama a refusé de le qualifier de coup d’État.

Si vous détruisez la démocratie, les États-Unis regarderont ailleurs. Si vous prenez les armes, les États-Unis discuteront, puis se retireront.

Mais si vous tentez de prendre votre indépendance vis-à-vis des États-Unis, l’enfer se déchaînera. Les marchés financiers videront votre économie de son sang, vos banques et vos entreprises seront sanctionnées, vos scientifiques nucléaires seront assassinés.

En plus d’être tout sauf crédible, la croyance impérialiste en la supériorité sociale, militaire et économique de l’Occident et son hypothèse inhérente selon laquelle il jouit du droit moral de diriger constituent une catastrophe stratégique. Les États-Unis sous Biden perdent leur influence aussi rapidement que sous Trump, parce qu’en fin de compte, peu de choses ont changé.

Les occupants et les dictateurs qui bafouent ouvertement les normes fondamentales en matière de droits de l’homme sont toujours récompensés avec de l’argent et des armes. La corruption est toujours alimentée par l’argent du contribuable américain. La population qui souffre sous leur joug est ignorée.

Dès lors, rien d’étonnant à ce que les Afghans n’aient pas combattu les talibans.

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