Skip to main content

Signals of an unsustainable future coming from Davos

Hyper-automation impact on unemployment rise - further shrinking of the middle class - creation of a working elite - substitution of saturated Western consumers with other emerging consumer tanks


The general conclusions from the report The Future of Jobs, of the 2016 World Economic Forum, leave little room for optimistic thoughts about the future. They reflect what already most of us have realized: that the combination of the current socio-economic model with the rapid hyper-automation of production, lead to further imbalance and inequality in favor of the very few.

As Stephen Hawking mentioned recently: “If machines produce everything we need, the outcome will depend on how things are distributed. Everyone can enjoy a life of luxurious leisure if the machine-produced wealth is shared, or most people can end up miserably poor if the machine-owners successfully lobby against wealth redistribution. So far, the trend seems to be toward the second option, with technology driving ever-increasing inequality.”

Some key points from the study:

Recent discussions about the employment impact of disruptive change have often been polarized between those who foresee limitless opportunities in newly emerging job categories and prospects that improve workers’ productivity and liberate them from routine work, and those that foresee massive labour substitution and displacement of jobs. Academics, chief executives and labour leaders hold strong and diverse views on the debate, as do policymakers. It is clear from our data that while forecasts vary by industry and region, momentous change is underway and that, ultimately, it is our actions today that will determine whether that change mainly results in massive displacement of workers or the emergence of new opportunities. Without urgent and targeted action today to manage the near-term transition and build a workforce with futureproof skills, governments will have to cope with ever-growing unemployment and inequality, and businesses with a shrinking consumer base.

Overall, our respondents seem to take a negative view regarding the upcoming employment impact of artificial intelligence, although not on a scale that would lead to widespread societal upheaval—at least up until the year 2020. By contrast, further unpacking the bundle of technological drivers of change in the mould of the Fourth Industrial Revolution yields a rather more optimistic picture regarding the job creation potential of technologies such as Big Data analytics, mobile internet, the Internet of Things and robotics. [...] Our respondents expect strong employment growth across the Architecture and Engineering and Computer and Mathematical job families, a moderate decline in Manufacturing and Production roles and a significant decline in Office and Administrative roles. [...] Conversely, 3D printing, resource-efficient sustainable production and robotics are all seen as strong drivers of employment growth in the Architecture and Engineering job family, in light of a continued and fast-growing need for skilled technicians and specialists to create and manage advanced and automated production systems. This is expected to lead to a transformation of manufacturing into a highly sophisticated sector where high-skilled engineers are in strong demand to make the industrial Internet of Things a reality.

The expected global decline in total Manufacturing and Production roles is driven by labour-substituting technologies such as additive manufacturing and 3D printing as much as by more resource-efficient sustainable product use, lower demand growth in ageing societies and threats to global supply chains due to geopolitical volatility. Some cautious optimism is warranted due to increased manufacturing demand for advanced materials and comparatively favourable expectations around robotics, pointing to the latter’s potential for labour-complementing productivity enhancement rather than pure job replacement.

The study estimates that there will be no “widespread societal upheaval—at least up until the year 2020”, due to the takeover of jobs by artificial intelligence, but is this realy a reason not to worry seriously? Think about it: 2020 is only four years from now! Say, at the end of the new US presidency.

Secondly, the study actually confirms the trend for a limited working elite between the top 1% (or less) and the bottom 99%. The 99% (or more), which will be equalized in poverty due to the gradual elimination of the middle class. This is expected to have a major impact on the socio-economic stability, even of the most advanced societies.

As already mentioned in previous article: “In the middle of the pyramid, a restructured class will serve and secure the domination of the top. Corporate executives, big journalists, scientific elites, suppression forces. It is characteristic that academic research is directed on the basis of the profits of big corporations. Funding is directed increasingly to practical applications in areas that can bring huge profits, like for example, the higher automatization of production and therefore, the profit increase through the restriction of jobs. The base of the pyramid will be consisted by the majority of workers in global level, with restricted wages, zero labor rights, and nearly zero opportunities for activities other than consumption.” [fa.ev/a-more-simple-model-in-favor]

However, by far the biggest expected drivers of employment creation are demographic and socio-economic in nature; in particular, the opportunities offered by young demographics and rising middle classes in emerging markets and the rising economic power and aspirations of women. [...] The Consumer industry is likewise reducing its Manufacturing and Production roles but anticipates at least stable overall demand for Sales and Related jobs, as rising middle classes in emerging markets, changing consumer values and, in particular, the rising economic power of women, are significant drivers of job growth in the sector.

As also mentioned: “The consumption-saturated and aging West, cannot longer contribute to the rise of profits of the global economic elite and therefore, through the economic crisis, the middle class is systematically eliminated so that its consuming power to be "aligned" with that of the majority of the huge populations of developing countries.” [fa.ev/a-more-simple-model-in-favor]

There is a huge potential of consumers due to unprecedented human population. Once wages will further rise in China-South East Asia, to be aligned with the shrinking Western wages, there will be plenty of consumers to buy more products. However, this is probably only a transition phase. It's not a matter of money, they can print as much as they want. It's a matter of power and control. Once the elites reach the point to control all the resources and the means of production, the model will change from capitalism to global feudalism.

Where it is mentioned, the artificial intelligence and machine learning driver is expected to lead to negative employment outcomes in job families such as Education and Training, Legal and Business and Financial Operations. However, it appears our respondents do not believe that these technologies will have advanced significantly enough by the year 2020 to have a more widespread impact on global employment levels. [...] current trends could lead to a net employment impact of more than 5.1 million jobs lost to disruptive labour market changes over the period 2015–2020, with a total loss of 7.1 million jobs — two thirds of which are concentrated in the Office and Administrative job family — and a total gain of 2 million jobs, in several smaller job families.

Despite that the mixture of all above is quite explosive, there is no intention by the governments and forces of the market to change the current model. On the contrary, there is a tension for further privatization of public property and businesses, and further deregulation of the market in every level. Which means that the only way for the elites to control the growing instability of this system, is by absolute suppression:

Having secured the new labor force through fully automated machines, what has left for the dominant elite now, is to take all the resources. Big corporations are grabbing huge cultivable areas especially in the developing countries in order to control food production. [...] We see a rise of private armies that act in various battlefields, like in Ukraine, exactly because in the absence of the nation-states and the national armies, someone has to protect the natural resources and the new means of production for the dominant elite. But when the arms industry will fully automate the new weapons, private armies will only serve as assistance to fully automated war machines. We already see the test fields of the weapons of future˙ the drones in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere. It's not accidental that the arms industries demonstrate new weapons designed to be used inside urban areas for suppression of potential riots. There will be no "outside enemy" in the future. The threat for the dominant system will come from the interior, the big urban centers. Soldier-robots will protect worker-robots and resources.” [fa.ev/the-dominant-elite-ready-to-break.html]

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Syria welcomed back into Arab League & US flips out

The Jimmy Dore Show   For more than a decade Syria under President Bashar al-Assad has been ostracized by most other Arab nations and excluded from the Arab League. But now that’s changed and Syria has been invited to re-join — a move that has left the United States apoplectic. But it seems that other member states don’t much care what the U.S. wants as they demonstrate an increasing willingness to thumb their noses at the globe’s declining superpower.  

Οι ολιγάρχες ετοιμάζουν την καρατόμηση Μητσοτάκη που θα ανοίξει το δρόμο σε μια κυβέρνηση ΝΔ-ΠΑΣΟΚ στα μέτρα τους

globinfo freexchange   Όπως είχαμε γράψει ήδη από τον Δεκέμβριο του 21, οι ολιγάρχες ξέρουν καλά ότι ο Μητσοτάκης δεν πρόκειται να πετύχει ξανά αυτοδυναμία σε επόμενες εκλογές, όποτε και αν γίνουν αυτές. Γι'αυτό και ετοιμάζονται για το Plan B, που είναι μια νέα συγκυβέρνηση ΝΔ-ΚΙΝΑΛ.  Τα σχέδια όμως χάλασαν, αφού η αποκάλυψη του μεγάλου σκανδάλου των υποκλοπών, με αρχι-υποκλοπέα τον Μητσοτάκη και έναν εκ των παρακολουθούμενων, τον Ανδρουλάκη, έκαψε το χαρτί συγκυβέρνησης ΝΔ-ΚΙΝΑΛ τουλάχιστον με τα σημερινά δεδομένα. Παρόλο που είναι βέβαιο ότι διάφοροι βαρόνοι-μνηστήρες της ηγετικής καρέκλας στη ΝΔ επιθυμούν διακαώς να ξεφορτωθούν τον Μητσοτάκη (και για τον λόγο ότι δεν θέλουν να τους συμπαρασύρει σε μια πιθανή εκλογική συντριβή), ο Μητσοτάκης κατάφερε να επιβιώσει ακόμα και μετά από δύο προτάσεις μομφής εναντίον του. Και αυτό γιατί πιθανόν να τους απειλεί με αποκάλυψη βρόμικων υποθέσεων που προέκυψαν από τις παρακολουθήσεις. Τώρα όμως οι μπλε βαρόνοι σε συνεργασία με τους ολιγάρ

Outrageous, Preposterous, Disgusting: After 1500 days, Julian Assange is still in prison and under slow-motion execution by the Anglo-American imperialist criminals

failed evolution   On 11 April 2019, the Ecuadorian government of traitor Lenin Moreno, invited the Metropolitan Police into the Ecuadorian embassy in London, and they arrested Julian Assange . Since then, Assange is kept in Belmarsh high security prison in London, without actual charges.   The real reason world's number one political prisoner is still kept in this high security prison, is because he exposed horrendous war crimes carried out by the US imperialists and their allies.   The ruthless Western imperialist regime wants to punish the No1 real journalist in the world and make him an example for any Whistleblower or real journalist who will attempt to expose its big crimes in the future.   And the Anglo-American axis has now become officially a fascist coalition , framed by the rest of its Western pets. UK's Home Secretary Priti Patel, one of the most ruthless ever, decided to extradite Julian Assange to US. No surprise of course. The only question we had in mind is

Greece: signs of a rigged election as the country officially enters a dark post-democracy

by system failure   The last four years with Kyriakos Mitsotakis in charge of Greece could be easily characterized as one of the worst periods in country's history since the fall of military junta in 1974.    From the beginning of his term, Mitsotakis took full control of the National Intelligence Service and the Athens News Agency. This was a first strong sign that his administration was about to be transformed eventually into a regime that would defy fundamental democratic principles.    Shortly after, Mitsotakis started to put his own people in key positions in Greece's national television and radio broadcaster. In this way, he managed to control the entire landscape of Greece's mainstream media as the big private TV stations that belong to the local oligarchs, did everything to bring him in power and fully support him to this day. Mitsotakis and his cabinet had also become the only option for the Brussels-Berlin directorate of the EU, as well as for the US imperialist b

Εκλογές 2023: Πώς αποδείχθηκε ότι η μιντιακή προπαγάνδα είναι πανίσχυρη

του system failure   Το αποτέλεσμα των βουλευτικών εκλογών Μαίου εξέπληξε σχεδόν τους πάντες, καθώς κανείς δεν περίμενε μια τέτοια μεγάλη διαφορά μεταξύ ΝΔ και ΣΥΡΙΖΑ. Το αποτέλεσμα βγάζει νόημα μόνο αν παραδεχθούμε ότι έχουμε να κάνουμε με μια κυβέρνηση με καθαρά καθεστωτικά χαρακτηριστικά, που από την επόμενη κιόλας μέρα ανάληψης της εξουσίας επιχείρησε - και απ'ότι φαίνεται το κατάφερε -  να ελέγξει όλους τους κεντρικούς μηχανισμούς και να στήσει αυτό που τα στελέχη της ΝΔ βάφτισαν "επιτελικό κράτος".    Μετά από τέσσερα χρόνια αποτυχιών και σκανδάλων, με την χειρότερη ίσως δεξιά που κυβέρνησε τη χώρα μεταπολιτευτικά, η μιντιακή υπεροπλία του καθεστώτος Μητσοτάκη καράφερε να δημιουργήσει μια εικονική πραγματικότητα δήθεν σταθερότητας και επιτυχιών.  Είναι βέβαιο ότι η εικονική αυτή πραγματικότητα επηρέασε ένα κομμάτι των ψηφοφόρων που δεν βιώνουν άμεσα τις συνέπειες των πολιτικών Μητσοτάκη και είναι εξαιρετικά επιρρεπείς στη μιντιακή προπαγάνδα. Αυτό όμως δεν αρκεί  γι

Ukraine's neoliberalism on steroids, Europe’s economic suicide

Geopolitical Economy Report   To analyze the conflict in Ukraine, political economists Radhika Desai and Michael Hudson are joined by economic geographer Mick Dunford. They discuss the aggressive neoliberal reforms being imposed by the Ukrainian government and Europe's suicidal policies.

NY Times is wrong on dedollarization: Economist Michael Hudson debunks Paul Krugman's dollar defense

Geopolitical Economy Report   Economist Michael Hudson responds to the misleading arguments against de-dollarization that New York Times columnist Paul Krugman made, as part of an attempt to defend US hegemony and the dollar system. 

Bombshell filing: 9/11 hijackers were CIA recruits

At least two 9/11 hijackers had been recruited into a joint CIA-Saudi intelligence operation that was covered up at the highest level, according to an explosive new court filing. by Kit Klarenberg Part 4 - Quite some coverup   Another of Canestraro’s sources, a former FBI agent who went by “CS-23,” testified that after 9/11, FBI headquarters and its San Diego field office quickly learned of “ Bayoumi’s affiliation with Saudi intelligence and subsequently the existence of the CIA’s operation to recruit ” Hazmi and Mihdhar. However, “ senior FBI officials suppressed investigations ” into these matters. “CS-23” alleged, furthermore, that Bureau agents testifying before the Joint Inquiry into 9/11 “ were instructed not to reveal the full extent of Saudi involvement with Al-Qaeda. ” The US intelligence community would have had every reason to shield Riyadh from scrutiny and consequences for its role in the 9/11 attacks, as it was then one of its closest allies. But the FBI’s eager complicit

A guide to understanding the hoax of the Century

Thirteen ways of looking at disinformation   by Jacob Siegel   Part 2 - Russophobia Returns, Unexpectedly: The Origins of Contemporary “Disinformation” The foundations of the current information war were laid in response to a sequence of events that took place in 2014. First Russia tried to suppress the U.S.-backed Euromaidan movement in Ukraine; a few months later Russia invaded Crimea; and several months after that the Islamic State captured the city of Mosul in northern Iraq and declared it the capital of a new caliphate. In three separate conflicts, an enemy or rival power of the United States was seen to have successfully used not just military might but also social media messaging campaigns designed to confuse and demoralize its enemies—a combination known as “hybrid warfare.” These conflicts convinced U.S. and NATO security officials that the power of social media to shape public perceptions had evolved to the point where it could decide the outcome of modern wars—outcomes that

Δεύτερη τετραετία Μητσοτάκη: Ο απόλυτος εφιάλτης για τη χώρα

globinfo freexchange   Πάρτε μια μόνο ιδέα για το τι θα σήμαινε μια δεύτερη τετραετία Μητσοτάκη:   - Καθεστώς σκληρότερο και πιο αδίστακτο. - Περαιτέρω υποβάθμιση δημοκρατικών θεσμών. - Ρουσφέτι, κατασπάραξη δημοσίου χρήματος από μπλε τρωκτικά, νέα αύξηση δημοσίου χρέους. - Διάλυση δημόσιας υγείας, παιδείας. - Ιδιωτικοποίηση νερού, εκτόξευση τιμών και υποβάθμιση υπηρεσιών και ποιότητας νερού.    - Βόλεμα γαλάζιων παιδιών σε προνομιακές θέσεις στο δημόσιο με ταυτόχρονες απολύσεις & διάλυση υπηρεσιών σε ακριτική επαρχία.    - Διάλυση κοινωνικού κράτους.   - Επέκταση καρτέλ πέρα από τρόφιμα, καύσιμα, ενέργεια.  - Σφαγή μικρομεσαίων επιχειρήσεων από την επέκταση των καρτέλ.   - Εξάπλωση της εργασιακής ζούγκλας με μισθούς πείνας λόγω καρτέλ.  - Πληθωρισμός στα ύψη λόγω αισχροκέρδειας των καρτέλ.   - Περαιτέρω συρρίκνωση του μέσου εισοδήματος λόγω εκτόξευσης τιμών από αισχροκέρδεια καρτέλ. - Μεγάλη μαύρη τρύπα στο ασφαλιστικό από το χρηματιστηριακό τζογάρισμα των γαλάζιων golden boys.