Skip to main content

Signals of an unsustainable future coming from Davos

Hyper-automation impact on unemployment rise - further shrinking of the middle class - creation of a working elite - substitution of saturated Western consumers with other emerging consumer tanks


The general conclusions from the report The Future of Jobs, of the 2016 World Economic Forum, leave little room for optimistic thoughts about the future. They reflect what already most of us have realized: that the combination of the current socio-economic model with the rapid hyper-automation of production, lead to further imbalance and inequality in favor of the very few.

As Stephen Hawking mentioned recently: “If machines produce everything we need, the outcome will depend on how things are distributed. Everyone can enjoy a life of luxurious leisure if the machine-produced wealth is shared, or most people can end up miserably poor if the machine-owners successfully lobby against wealth redistribution. So far, the trend seems to be toward the second option, with technology driving ever-increasing inequality.”

Some key points from the study:

Recent discussions about the employment impact of disruptive change have often been polarized between those who foresee limitless opportunities in newly emerging job categories and prospects that improve workers’ productivity and liberate them from routine work, and those that foresee massive labour substitution and displacement of jobs. Academics, chief executives and labour leaders hold strong and diverse views on the debate, as do policymakers. It is clear from our data that while forecasts vary by industry and region, momentous change is underway and that, ultimately, it is our actions today that will determine whether that change mainly results in massive displacement of workers or the emergence of new opportunities. Without urgent and targeted action today to manage the near-term transition and build a workforce with futureproof skills, governments will have to cope with ever-growing unemployment and inequality, and businesses with a shrinking consumer base.

Overall, our respondents seem to take a negative view regarding the upcoming employment impact of artificial intelligence, although not on a scale that would lead to widespread societal upheaval—at least up until the year 2020. By contrast, further unpacking the bundle of technological drivers of change in the mould of the Fourth Industrial Revolution yields a rather more optimistic picture regarding the job creation potential of technologies such as Big Data analytics, mobile internet, the Internet of Things and robotics. [...] Our respondents expect strong employment growth across the Architecture and Engineering and Computer and Mathematical job families, a moderate decline in Manufacturing and Production roles and a significant decline in Office and Administrative roles. [...] Conversely, 3D printing, resource-efficient sustainable production and robotics are all seen as strong drivers of employment growth in the Architecture and Engineering job family, in light of a continued and fast-growing need for skilled technicians and specialists to create and manage advanced and automated production systems. This is expected to lead to a transformation of manufacturing into a highly sophisticated sector where high-skilled engineers are in strong demand to make the industrial Internet of Things a reality.

The expected global decline in total Manufacturing and Production roles is driven by labour-substituting technologies such as additive manufacturing and 3D printing as much as by more resource-efficient sustainable product use, lower demand growth in ageing societies and threats to global supply chains due to geopolitical volatility. Some cautious optimism is warranted due to increased manufacturing demand for advanced materials and comparatively favourable expectations around robotics, pointing to the latter’s potential for labour-complementing productivity enhancement rather than pure job replacement.

The study estimates that there will be no “widespread societal upheaval—at least up until the year 2020”, due to the takeover of jobs by artificial intelligence, but is this realy a reason not to worry seriously? Think about it: 2020 is only four years from now! Say, at the end of the new US presidency.

Secondly, the study actually confirms the trend for a limited working elite between the top 1% (or less) and the bottom 99%. The 99% (or more), which will be equalized in poverty due to the gradual elimination of the middle class. This is expected to have a major impact on the socio-economic stability, even of the most advanced societies.

As already mentioned in previous article: “In the middle of the pyramid, a restructured class will serve and secure the domination of the top. Corporate executives, big journalists, scientific elites, suppression forces. It is characteristic that academic research is directed on the basis of the profits of big corporations. Funding is directed increasingly to practical applications in areas that can bring huge profits, like for example, the higher automatization of production and therefore, the profit increase through the restriction of jobs. The base of the pyramid will be consisted by the majority of workers in global level, with restricted wages, zero labor rights, and nearly zero opportunities for activities other than consumption.” [fa.ev/a-more-simple-model-in-favor]

However, by far the biggest expected drivers of employment creation are demographic and socio-economic in nature; in particular, the opportunities offered by young demographics and rising middle classes in emerging markets and the rising economic power and aspirations of women. [...] The Consumer industry is likewise reducing its Manufacturing and Production roles but anticipates at least stable overall demand for Sales and Related jobs, as rising middle classes in emerging markets, changing consumer values and, in particular, the rising economic power of women, are significant drivers of job growth in the sector.

As also mentioned: “The consumption-saturated and aging West, cannot longer contribute to the rise of profits of the global economic elite and therefore, through the economic crisis, the middle class is systematically eliminated so that its consuming power to be "aligned" with that of the majority of the huge populations of developing countries.” [fa.ev/a-more-simple-model-in-favor]

There is a huge potential of consumers due to unprecedented human population. Once wages will further rise in China-South East Asia, to be aligned with the shrinking Western wages, there will be plenty of consumers to buy more products. However, this is probably only a transition phase. It's not a matter of money, they can print as much as they want. It's a matter of power and control. Once the elites reach the point to control all the resources and the means of production, the model will change from capitalism to global feudalism.

Where it is mentioned, the artificial intelligence and machine learning driver is expected to lead to negative employment outcomes in job families such as Education and Training, Legal and Business and Financial Operations. However, it appears our respondents do not believe that these technologies will have advanced significantly enough by the year 2020 to have a more widespread impact on global employment levels. [...] current trends could lead to a net employment impact of more than 5.1 million jobs lost to disruptive labour market changes over the period 2015–2020, with a total loss of 7.1 million jobs — two thirds of which are concentrated in the Office and Administrative job family — and a total gain of 2 million jobs, in several smaller job families.

Despite that the mixture of all above is quite explosive, there is no intention by the governments and forces of the market to change the current model. On the contrary, there is a tension for further privatization of public property and businesses, and further deregulation of the market in every level. Which means that the only way for the elites to control the growing instability of this system, is by absolute suppression:

Having secured the new labor force through fully automated machines, what has left for the dominant elite now, is to take all the resources. Big corporations are grabbing huge cultivable areas especially in the developing countries in order to control food production. [...] We see a rise of private armies that act in various battlefields, like in Ukraine, exactly because in the absence of the nation-states and the national armies, someone has to protect the natural resources and the new means of production for the dominant elite. But when the arms industry will fully automate the new weapons, private armies will only serve as assistance to fully automated war machines. We already see the test fields of the weapons of future˙ the drones in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere. It's not accidental that the arms industries demonstrate new weapons designed to be used inside urban areas for suppression of potential riots. There will be no "outside enemy" in the future. The threat for the dominant system will come from the interior, the big urban centers. Soldier-robots will protect worker-robots and resources.” [fa.ev/the-dominant-elite-ready-to-break.html]

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Διπλό στρατηγικό χτύπημα Τσίπρα κατά του καταρρέοντος Μητσοτακικού καθεστώτος

globinfo freexchange   Η είδηση έπεσε σαν βόμβα και παρόλο που η μιντιακή χούντα προσπάθησε (όπως πάντα) να υποβαθμίσει το γεγονός, η σούπα χάλασε από μια νέα ομάδα ποντικών που θέλησαν να πηδήξουν από το βυθιζόμενο Μητσοτακικό καράβι, πριν προλάβει να τους συμπαρασύρει η τρικυμία των εξελίξεων.   Αναφερόμαστε στην κατάρρευση της θεωρίας της σκευωρίας που έστησε το καθεστώς όσον αφορά το σκάνδαλο Novartis. Όπως ανέφερε το left.gr :                        H απόφαση «κόλαφος» του Δικαστικού Συμβουλίου για τα κακοστημένα κατηγορητήρια της κυβέρνησης Μητσοτάκη σε βάρος δημοσιογράφων που αποκάλυψαν το σκάνδαλο Novartis, εκθέτει πρώτον από όλους τον πρωθυπουργό ο οποίος είχε προεξοφλήσει από το βήμα της Βουλής την ενοχή τους με βαρείς χαρακτηρισμούς σε μια προσπάθεια να επηρεάσει τη Δικαιοσύνη. Πράγματι, η απόφαση αφήνει απόλυτα εκτεθειμένο τον Μητσοτάκη, που με θράσος από το βήμα της βουλής επιχείρησε με άθλιους χαρακτηρισμούς να στοχοποιήσει τους δημοσιογράφους (κυρίως Παπαδάκου και Βαξε

US imperialists sacrifice their European branch on the altar of their proxy war against Russia in Ukraine

globinfo freexchange   To arm the nazis and destroy Ukraine by dragging the country into a war with Russia wasn't enough for the ruthless US imperialists. They had to throw into the arena the entire Europe.    Yet, apart from a few - highly uncertain - successes so far, (coming from one of its most dirty proxy wars), the declining US empire discovers that it has to pay a huge price, just only to challenge the rise of its global rivals. It appears that, so far, the US imperialists are close to fulfill two of their key goals.    First, to lure Sweden and Finland into the NATO trap. A move that could be proved disastrous for two of the most prosperous and advanced European countries, whose achievements materialized (to a high degree) due to decades of neutrality.   Second, to force Russia into a long attrition war with Ukraine. Since already 2014, we wrote that the US imperialists wanted to challenge Putin in order to drag Russia in an endless attrition war in East Ukraine and this

Iran & Russia pledge to cut US dollar from global trade, strengthen China alliance

Multipolarista   Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Iran, signed a $40 billion energy cooperation agreement, and pledged to strengthen their economic and military alliance with China. Moscow and Tehran also called to drop the US dollar and use local currencies for trade.

Do it like the Fed: ECB raises key interest rates, creates money circulation loop for big banks and corporations

globinfo freexchange   Inside the storm of inflation, the European Central Bank suddenly thought that it would be a good idea to raise key interest rates for the first time in 11 years.  According to Deutsche Welle (DW) [emphasis added]:                       The ECB raised its negative benchmark deposit rate by 50 basis points from minus 0.5% to 0%, lifting the bank's deposit facility out of negative territory for the first time in eight years. The announcement came as a surprise as the bank had initially hinted that it would hike the rate by 25 basis points only .    It's remarkable that DW's analyst, Kristie Pladson, stated that " ... this is a historic decision they've taken now - first hike in eleven years, so, on that level, it's a little bit unclear exactly what effect it's going to have ... "   However, one thing ECB's move will surely affect, is money access for most of the Europeans. As Pladson says:                      ... what we do

Francis Fukuyama is right: Socialism is the only alternative to liberalism

In Liberalism and Its Discontents, Francis Fukuyama diagnoses the political and psychological malaise caused by capitalism. His analysis makes one thing clear: liberalism is incapable of addressing the social, economic, and ecological crises it faces.    by Samuel McIlhagga  Part 1 In a CNN interview, after another round of the US government’s sanctions on Russia, the following exchange took place between the show’s host and President Joe Biden’s economic adviser Brian Deese:               CNN: What do you say to those families that say, “Listen, we can’t afford to pay $4.85 a gallon for months if not years, this is just not sustainable”?         Deese: Well, what you heard from the president today was a clear articulation of the stakes. . . . This is about the future of the liberal world order and we have to stand firm. The events of the past two years, from the start of the global pandemic to the war in Ukraine, and now the global food shortage, are clear signs that liberalism, as a

Mexico’s President gives Joe Biden a big history lesson

Latin American nations are putting themselves on the front line for the sovereignty of certain countries, and are backing progressive processes in others   by Rodrigo Guillot   Part 1 Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) visited the United States on July 12 and offered five proposals to US President Joe Biden. These proposals are based on AMLO’s in-depth knowledge of Mexican history and his reading of the economic crisis in the United States, which seems to be losing its edge as a global leader. The first of the proposals that AMLO made was about Mexico allowing US consumers to fill gasoline tanks on the Mexican side of the border. By doing so, it is permitting the United States to ease its inflation crisis. AMLO offered to double the supply of gasoline in Mexico in his show of support to further ease the crisis. Second, AMLO said that Mexico would provide for more than 600 miles of gas pipelines along the US–Mexico border to help transport natural gas from Texas to Ar

Paul Mason’s covert intelligence-linked plot to destroy The Grayzone exposed

Leaked emails reveal British journalist Paul Mason plotting with an intel contractor to destroy The Grayzone through “relentless deplatforming” and a “full nuclear legal” attack. The scheme is part of a wider planned assault on the UK left.   by Kit Klarenberg and Max Blumenthal Part 5 - Consulting Nina Jankowicz on paranoid scheme against Consortium News On April 8, Mason emailed Khan to express alarm about a piece in Consortium News , the independent news platform founded by the late Robert Parry in 1995, questioning the Western narrative of the Bucha massacre. “ Who’s behind Consortium News? ”, the subject header read. Assistance soon arrived from none other than Andy Pryce from the Counter Disinformation and Media Development unit at the UK Foreign Office. To learn more about Consortium News , Pryce had consulted Nina Jankowicz, then the chief of the Department of Homeland Security’s newly inaugurated Disinformation Governance Board. (Jankowicz would resign her post in disgrace jus

Official documents prove “Top Gun: Maverick” is military propaganda

by Alan Macleod   Part 4 - Hollywood: the military’s wingman   “Top Gun: Maverick” has been produced at a time when the United States is currently throttling Iran with illegal and deadly sanctions. In early 2020, the Trump administration assassinated top Iranian general and statesman Qassem Soleimani, and influential figures in the United States have called for an unprovoked nuclear attack on the country. Yet none of this context is mentioned, leaving the legality of the depicted attack unquestioned. As Stahl told MintPress , the basic assumption is that “ the U.S. has the right to violate international law and strike any country for any reason. ” “ Imagine if this film came out of Iran and was about striking an Israeli or U.S. nuclear facility, ” he said. “ Heads would explode with accusations of hard-line propaganda. ” Therefore, “Top Gun: Maverick” falls in line in promoting a remarkably militaristic society; one that spends almost as much on war as every other nation on Earth combi

The British establishment chose Boris Johnson as its weapon to defeat the Left

Boris Johnson’s disastrous time in office has spluttered to an ignominious conclusion. Many of those now deploring his record sided with Johnson when it really mattered because they wanted to block a left-wing government that could transform British society.   by Daniel Finn   Part 3 - Change UK Can Believe In Austin and Woodcock weren’t the only Labour MPs to break ranks under Corbyn. In February 2019, seven MPs resigned from the party and set up the Independent Group, which later became Change UK. There was a lot of talk in the commentariat about their potential to break the mold of British politics. Yet in the 2019 election, Change UK — now calling itself the Independent Group for Change — took just over ten thousand votes, marginally outpolling the Monster Raving Loony Party. All of the Labour defectors lost their seats — including those who defected a second time to the Liberal Democrats — apart from the ones who decided not to stand. They’ve since gone on to higher things: Chris

The biggest lie the hawks ever sold

Caitlin Johnstone The biggest lie the hawks ever sold was that their militaristic policies prevent the problems they actually create. Militarizing against Russia caused this war. The war on terror created terror groups. Continuing the encirclement of China will likely lead to a nasty confrontation there.