by system
failure
Although SYRIZA retreat to the European Financial Dictatorship (EFD) and
the subsequent split of the Leftist party, leaves little room for someone to make safe predictions for the result of Sunday's snap elections in
Greece, it would be worth to make an attempt to predict the next day
through some possible scenarios.
Briefly:
Scenario
1 : SYRIZA takes the first place and Independent Greeks manage to
enter the new parliament. In case that they gather the adequate
number of MPs, they will form a coalition government. This would be
actually the continuing of previous coalition. In that case, Greece's
creditors will take for granted that the Greek people accept the 3rd
catastrophic memorandum which was signed by Tsipras and they will
force the new government to imply every detail under the tight
control of EFD's mechanisms.
Scenario
2 : SYRIZA takes the first place, but Independent Greeks do not
gather the necessary percentage to enter the new parliament. Berlin
and Brussels bureaufascists will be happier in such a case because
this will be the most suitable situation to see things progressing
according to their plans.
It will be a good chance to finish what they have started, forcing
SYRIZA to cooperate with the neoliberal parties PASOK and Potami
(River) and therefore, implement every last detail of the cruel
neoliberal experiment in Greece. After Greece's destruction they can
continue to the whole eurozone. Although PASOK and Potami are in
essence neoliberal parties, they are self-determined as Center-Left
and this is necessary for this possible coalition government
(SYRIZA-PASOK-Potami) to be presented to the public as "progressive".
Scenario
3 : This will be an alternative to scenario 2 in case that
SYRIZA, PASOK and Potami will not manage to gather the necessary
seats to form coalition. New Democracy will have to join them under a
wider coalition, to implement the third memorandum deal. This would
not be such a preferable situation for the Brussels-Berlin axis, as
it would be probably unstable. There are still remnants inside SYRIZA
which stand far from the moderate core of the party, feeling closer
to the radical Left. These have certainly huge ideological
differences with the far-Right part of New Democracy. They may all
have been bound to the implementation of the third memorandum, but an
"accident" inside this probable government-zombie (as
himself Alexis Tsipras characterized it recently), should not be
considered impossible.
Scenario
4 : Popular Unity, the
new party that was formed after the split of SYRIZA, takes the first
place in the elections. It sounds an extreme scenario, but it should
not be considered totally impossible. As the anti-memorandum options
are now restricted for the voters, many who want to see a government
that will truly fight against the neoliberal barbarism imposed by the
creditors, even if this means the exit from eurozone, they will
choose Popular Unity to avoid the extremes of Communist Party and
Golden Dawn. In this case, there is a small possibility for a Popular
Unity/SYRIZA coalition under Popular Unity terms which include a plan
B for Grexit. It will be the worse scenario for the creditors as they
will have to face a government determined even to leave euro. The
domino effect will be closer than ever as the Portuguese and Spanish
elections will follow shortly.
Scenario
5 : The first party is not able to form a government as the wider
split of the political landscape (due to SYRIZA split), spreads the
votes and reduces the power of the biggest parties. In that case,
Greece may enter into a period of continuous political instability.
The EFD will probably take advantage of this situation to promote,
again, a government of technocrats-banking puppets. The
Brussels-Berlin axis has already its man at the Bank of Greece. The
governor, Yannis Stournaras, is ready to lead such a government under
its orders.
Tsipras said
recently that he considers New Democracy, PASOK and Potami parts of
the old political system that ruined the country, and so, there is no
way SYRIZA to cooperate with them. However, in the recent debate,
he avoided to say clearly that he will not cooperate with PASOK and
Potami.
Read
also:
Various
scenarios for the national elections in Greece
Additional note:
Under another scenario, New Democracy takes the first place and manages to form a coalition with PASOK and Potami. In such a case, there is no need for further analysis, we all know where that leads.
Additional note:
Under another scenario, New Democracy takes the first place and manages to form a coalition with PASOK and Potami. In such a case, there is no need for further analysis, we all know where that leads.
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