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25 August, 2015

First predictions for the snap elections in Greece

Greek elections

globinfo freexchange

First predictions for the snap elections in Greece have started already. According to the German newspaper Bild, SYRIZA appears with heavy losses with a percentage of 28%. Close to SYRIZA is the right-Wing New Democracy with 25% (little less than 3% lower than in previous elections) and the new Popular Unity party that came from the split of SYRIZA, appears to gather 8% of the votes.

All first polls show significant losses for Alexis Tsipras and SYRIZA. In the last few days, many members of the party have resigned and Tsipras has to deal also with the internal crisis in his party after the split according to the plan B of the Brussels bureaufascists.

Most of the early predictions give Lafazanis' Popular Unity a percentage of 7-8%, while SYRIZA's partners in the coalition government, Independent Greeks, struggle to reach the crucial 3% to enter the new parliament.

In any case, the split of SYRIZA creates an even more complex political landscape in Greece, which may lead to increasing political instability as the differences between the various political formations appear more difficult than ever to be covered.

This is something that the Brussels-Berlin axis officials may exploit and proceed in the plan C, according to which, unelected puppets like Papademos and Monti will take the power to implement all the measures of the Greek experiment. Their man, Governor of the Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras, is waiting ...

Below, you can check some first predictions by our blog. At this point of course, we don't need to say that we may fall very far from the final results. Anyway, you may freely write your own predictions in the comments if you like.

SYRIZA 26-27%
Popular Unity + Plan B + ANTARSYA etc. 22-23%
Νew Democracy 14-15%
Golden Dawn 9-10%
Greek Communist Party 5-5.5%
Union of Centrists 4-4.5%
River 4-4.5%
PASOK + Movement of Democratic Socialists 3.5-4%
Independent Greeks 2.5-3.5%

Update (29/8):

SYRIZA 23-25%
Popular Unity + Plan B etc. 20-23%
Νew Democracy 12-15%
Golden Dawn 6-8%
Greek Communist Party 5-5.5%
Union of Centrists 4-4.5%
River 4-4,5%
PASOK 3-4%
Independent Greeks 2.5-3.5%

Update (04/9):

SYRIZA 23-25%
Popular Unity + Plan B etc. 20-23%
Νew Democracy 12-15%
Golden Dawn 6-8%
Greek Communist Party 5-5.5%
Union of Centrists 3.5-4%
River 2.5-3.5%
PASOK 3-4%
Independent Greeks 2.5-3.5%

Update (11/9): [After the first debate]

SYRIZA 25-28%
Popular Unity + Plan B etc. 20-23%
Νew Democracy 11-13%
Golden Dawn 6-8%
Greek Communist Party 5-5.5%
Union of Centrists 3.5-4%
River 2.5-3.5%
PASOK + DIMAR 3-4%
Independent Greeks 2.5-3.5%

Update (15/9): [After the second debate]

SYRIZA 28-30%
Popular Unity + Plan B etc. 20-23%
Νew Democracy 11-13%
Golden Dawn 6-8%
Greek Communist Party 5-5.5%
Union of Centrists 2.5-3%
River 2.5-3.5%
PASOK + DIMAR 3-4%
Independent Greeks 2.5-3.5%
______________________________________________________________________________

OTHER POLLS (updated frequently) :

Update:  Another secret poll:

SYRIZA 34.5%
Popular Unity + Plan B + ANTARSYA etc. 6%
Νew Democracy 23.1%
Golden Dawn 5.9%
Greek Communist Party 4.7%
River 4.8%
PASOK 2.8%
Independent Greeks 3.1%  [Source: http://olympia.gr/]

Update: A new poll by the INTERVIEW company for Vergina TV gives:

SYRIZA 24%
Popular Unity + Plan B + ANTARSYA etc. 4.5%
Νew Democracy 22%
Golden Dawn 6%
Greek Communist Party 4.5%
Union of Centrists 4%
River 5.5%
PASOK 4.5%
Independent Greeks 3.5% [Source: http://www.newsbomb.gr/]

Update: A new poll by the ProRata for the Newspaper of the Editors (efsyn) gives:

SYRIZA 23%
Popular Unity + Plan B + ANTARSYA etc. 3.5%
Νew Democracy 19.5%
Golden Dawn 6.5%
Greek Communist Party 5%
River 4%
PASOK 4.5%
undecided / didn't answer 25.5% [Source: http://www.efsyn.gr/]
 
Update: Poll by the Metron Analysis for the newspaper Parapolitika gives:

SYRIZA 22.2%
Popular Unity + Plan B + ANTARSYA etc. 3.1%
Νew Democracy 21.2%
Golden Dawn 6.4%
Greek Communist Party 5%
Union of Centrists 3.8%
River 4.5%
PASOK 4.1%
Independent Greeks 1.7%
Unidentified vote 11.2% [Source: http://tvxs.gr/]

Update: Poll by the University of Macedonia for skai TV gives:

SYRIZA 25%
Popular Unity + Plan B + ANTARSYA etc. 5%
Νew Democracy 22%
Golden Dawn 5.5%
Greek Communist Party 6%
Union of Centrists 4.5%
River 6%
PASOK 4.5%
Independent Greeks 2%
Other 5%
undecided / didn't answer 14.5% [Source: http://www.skai.gr/]

Update: Poll by the MARC company for Alpha TV gives:

SYRIZA 25.3%
Popular Unity + Plan B + ANTARSYA etc. 3.8%
Νew Democracy 23.2%
Golden Dawn 5.5%
Greek Communist Party 4.2%
Union of Centrists 3.8%
River 5.8%
PASOK 4.4%
Independent Greeks 3%
Unidentified vote 18.8% [Source: http://www.sportdog.gr/]

Update: Poll by the think tank Bridging Europe gives:

SYRIZA 26.8%
Popular Unity + Plan B + ANTARSYA etc. 6.1%
Νew Democracy 18.3%
Golden Dawn 5.9%
Greek Communist Party 5.8%
Union of Centrists 2.6%
River 6.2%
PASOK 2.9%
Independent Greeks 2.4%
Other 3.2%
undecided / didn't answer 19.8%
[Source: http://www.bridgingeurope.net/]

Update: Poll by the MRB for the newspaper Agora gives:

SYRIZA 24.6%
Popular Unity + Plan B etc. 4.2%
Νew Democracy 22.8%
Golden Dawn 6.2%
Greek Communist Party 4.7%
Union of Centrists 4.7%
River 5.6%
PASOK 3.9%
Independent Greeks 2.3%
Other 4.1%
Unidentified vote 16.9% [Source: http://tvxs.gr/]

Update: Poll by the Pulse RC  for the newspaper To Pontiki gives:

SYRIZA 25.5%
Popular Unity + Plan B etc. 4.5%
Νew Democracy 25%
Golden Dawn 6%
Greek Communist Party 5%
Union of Centrists 3.5%
River 5%
PASOK 5.5%
Independent Greeks 2.5%
Other 2%
undecided / didn't answer 10.5% [Source: http://news247.gr/

Update: Poll by Metron Analysis for the newspaper Parapolitika gives:

SYRIZA 23.4%
Popular Unity + Plan B etc. 3.4%
Νew Democracy 24%
Golden Dawn 5.1%
Greek Communist Party 5.2%
Union of Centrists 4%
River 4.8%
PASOK 4%
Independent Greeks 2%
Unidentified vote 11.3% [Source: http://tvxs.gr/]

Update: New Poll by the think tank Bridging Europe gives:

SYRIZA 26.9%
Popular Unity + Plan B etc. 6.2%
Νew Democracy 19.8%
Golden Dawn 6.1%
Greek Communist Party 5.6%
Union of Centrists 2.4%
River 5.9%
PASOK 3.1%
Independent Greeks 2%
Other 4.6%
undecided / didn't answer 17.4% [Source:http://www.bridgingeurope.net/]

Update: Poll by MRB for Star Channel gives:

SYRIZA 25.1%
Popular Unity + Plan B etc. 3.6%
Νew Democracy 25.1%
Golden Dawn 6%
Greek Communist Party 5%
Union of Centrists 3.9%
River 4.6%
PASOK 5.2%
Independent Greeks 2.3%
Other 4%
Unidentified vote 15% [Source: http://tvxs.gr/]

Update: Poll by newsit.gr + Alco gives:

SYRIZA 24.8%
Popular Unity + Plan B etc. 4.2%
Νew Democracy 24.4%
Golden Dawn 6.6%
Greek Communist Party 5.9%
Union of Centrists 3.9%
River 4.7%
PASOK 4.5%
Independent Greeks 2.2%
Other 3.8%
undecided 15% [Source: http://www.newsit.gr/]

Update: Poll by Pulse for bankingnews.gr gives:

SYRIZA 27%
Popular Unity + Plan B + ANTARSYA etc. 4%
Νew Democracy 26.5%
Golden Dawn 6.5%
Greek Communist Party 5.5%
Union of Centrists 4%
River 5.5%
PASOK-DIMAR 6%
Independent Greeks 2.5%
ANTARSYA 1%
Other 1.5%
undecided / didn't answer 10% [Source: http://bankingnews.gr/]

Update: Poll by ProRata for the Newspaper of the Editors (efsyn) gives:

SYRIZA 28.5%
Popular Unity + Plan B + ANTARSYA etc. 2.5%
Νew Democracy 23.5%
Golden Dawn 6.5%
Greek Communist Party 4.5%
Union of Centrists 3.5%
River 4%
PASOK 4.5%
Independent Greeks 2.5%
Other 2.5%
undecided / didn't answer 17.5% [Source: http://tvxs.gr/]

Update: Poll by Metron Analysis for the TV channel ANT1 gives:

SYRIZA 24.6%
Popular Unity + Plan B etc. 3%
Νew Democracy 24.6%
Golden Dawn 5.6%
Greek Communist Party 4.8%
Union of Centrists 3%
River 4.6%
PASOK + DIMAR 4.2%
Independent Greeks 2.3%
undecided / didn't answer 9.1% [Source: http://tvxs.gr/]

18 comments:

  1. that seems overly optimistic on Popular Unity et al. I'd expect SYRIZA to poll in the mid-30s, Golden Dawn closer to 5%.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think it is too early for predictions. after their first speeches and how people will receive them we will know how things will go.

      Delete
  2. Anonymous25/8/15 18:15

    What does SYRIZA stand for? After holding a vote that returned "OXI" on austerity, they ignored it. My bet would be SYRIZA is at best low teens. Possibly single digits if Yanis V. embraces one of the anti-austerity parties.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I hope and keep my fingers crossed that Yanis will not join Lafazanis and or Zoe Konstadopoulou who we really don't know what she is going to do.
      Varoufakis should stay out of this mess he will lose his popularity If he does join anyone against Tsipras.

      Delete
    2. SY/RI/ZA Synaspismos Rizospastikis Aristeras

      Delete
    3. Anonymous26/8/15 18:00

      Given that Yanis is describing SYRIZA's action as "surrender". We have to believe he will align with one of the anti-austeiryt/anti-SYRIZA parties. I guess he could "bow out" and not engage with any party, but that seems at odds with his personality.

      http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/08/20/the-greek-plan-for-growth-recovery-two-documents-the-ministry-of-finance-tabled-in-may-and-june-2015/

      Delete
  3. First poll is bad. The second and third polls make more sense. Im not sure Popular Unity will get that much traction, especially considering the last two polls contradict the first.

    ReplyDelete
  4. First poll is bad. The second and third polls make more sense. Im not sure Popular Unity will get that much traction, especially considering the last two polls contradict the first.

    ReplyDelete
  5. SYRIZA was voted in in January with 36% ie mid thirties. I can't seem them getting anywhere near that now. Since their raison d'etre now seems to be administering MOU horror with 'clean hands' mid 20s seems more realistic. Depending on their manifesto - soon to be published - and how they handle the coming weeks, and considering the pool of angry NO voters plus realistic voters, LAE could do quite well.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Anonymous26/8/15 13:48

    http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/Judge-Delaware-County-Courthouse-Racist-Rant-Child-Support-322353432.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous26/8/15 13:50

      Judge goes on racist Greek rant.

      http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/Judge-Delaware-County-Courthouse-Racist-Rant-Child-Support-322353432.html

      Delete
  7. Anonymous27/8/15 08:22

    golden dawn over 20%...
    keep it real ...

    ReplyDelete
  8. Update (04/9):

    SYRIZA 23-25%

    Popular Unity + Plan B etc. 20-23%

    Νew Democracy 12-15%

    Golden Dawn 6-8%

    Greek Communist Party 5-5.5%

    Union of Centrists 3.5-4%

    River 2.5-3.5%

    PASOK 3-4%

    Independent Greeks 2.5-3.5%

    ReplyDelete

  9. Update (15/9): [After the second debate]

    SYRIZA 28-30%
    Popular Unity + Plan B etc. 20-23%
    Νew Democracy 11-13%
    Golden Dawn 6-8%
    Greek Communist Party 5-5.5%
    Union of Centrists 2.5-3%
    River 2.5-3.5%
    PASOK + DIMAR 3-4%
    Independent Greeks 2.5-3.5%

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete