Skip to main content

Eurozone is ready to explode, but probably not for the reasons you think

globinfo freexchange

Wolfgang Schäuble and the German leadership of the eurozone have good reasons to worry, maintaining an uncompromising attitude in the negotiations with Greece. But the repayment of Greek debt, which amounts to EUR 317 billion, is not one of the most important ones. The Greek debt is insignificant in comparison with the financial dynamite of the German (and other) banks, which in recent months gives more daily ignition signs.

Only Deutsche Bank, the largest bank in Germany, is significantly exposed, holding dubious financial products known as "derivatives", worth 67 trillion euros. This amount is similar to the GDP of the entire world and 20 times greater than the GDP of Germany. Any comparison with the situation of the bank Lehman Brothers in 2008 would not be irrelevant. Just when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, had available derivatives of only 31.5 trillion. The crisis of 2008 confirmed the concise definition of derivatives as proposed by the American tycoon Warren Buffet: "financial weapons of mass destruction."

2008 may now be a past, but recent developments are particularly bleak for Deutsche Bank. The competent authorities of the US and Britain imposed on the bank in April a fine record (which, together with a previous fine, are EUR 2.2 billion in total) for fraudulent interbank rates. In early June, two co-CEOs suddenly resigned. Four former bank executives had been prosecuted by the German judicial authorities for false statements and misleading testimonies. A few days later, prosecutors raided the bank's offices in Frankfurt to collect customer data.

At the same time, financial products are becoming daily more precarious. Immediately after the announcement of the failure of the negotiations between Greece and the "institutions" on June 12, the risk of eurozone bonds recorded vertical rise. The German ZEW economic outlook index fell on June 16 for the third consecutive month, and has fallen by 43% in three months.

Admittedly, Germany is no exception. Other countries have similar problems, such as Austria, Netherlands and Finland. But these are minor compared to the size of the risky investments of Deutsche Bank.

In view of the above problems, a possible Greece's stance of payments should not be of particular concern in the eurozone, especially when it has repeatedly announced that the "institutions" have ready plans to handle a potential Grexit. But perhaps the intensive efforts of the German leadership, highlighting the crisis of the European periphery economies (Greece, Spain etc.), as the main problem of the eurozone, are simply a smokescreen to cover the inherent instability of the financial system. Because as the developments have shown so far, the primary objective of European leaders is to protect banks.

When a giant bank must get rid of "junk" bonds or to obtain additional liquidity, turns to the ECB. Immediately before the PSI, the ECB helped Deutsche Bank, among others, to sell at a good price the "toxic" Greek bonds, which are now held by the ECB, which of course is backed by European taxpayers. The Deutsche Bank and the other banks had relatively insignificant losses from PSI, in contrast to the Greek pensioners. And since the banks did not failed, they didn't have to learn any lesson, convinced that the leaders of northwestern Europe would not leave them helpless in a similar situation in the future.

This situation is coming closer every day, and even a small jolt of the bank boat (a Greek default), can have unintended consequences, such as an uncontrolled chain bankruptcy. Because if something goes wrong, the Deutsche Bank, like most banks, is able to cover only a small part of "derivatives" and other toxic products held.

Therefore, Mr. Schaeuble, Mrs. Merkel and the other "tough guys" of the eurozone have every reason to worry. Of course, the real reason for their concern and their intransigent attitude can not be the Greek debt, which corresponds to 0.5% of the derivatives possessed only by one German bank, but the insecurity created by the possibility of the financial paper tower turbulence.

For the German leadership, the Greek crisis is a convenient scapegoat to divert attention of the European public from the painful reality. The tough stance of lenders to Greece and the countries of the periphery of Europe notably aim at avoiding two undesirable developments. First, a shaking of the market, which can cause a default or a deletion of part of the Greek debt. Second, a series of concessions to Greece, which will threaten the European neoliberal establishment. But when the bank boat starts sinking, the adaptation of the Greek passengers to the captains' orders cannot by itself prevent the sinking.

The Greek negotiators probably know a lot more than the usual accusations by their interlocutors and the "institutions", who use Orwellian tactics to present as 'inexperience' the thorough negation of Greek side to adapt in a flimsy financial framework.

Source:

Comments

  1. Anonymous14/7/15 13:18

    I am pretty sure most of the derivatives of Deutsche Bank are denominated in US Dollars and therefore have nothing to do with the Euro as such.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous26/9/16 16:55

      you kinda said everything. US recession this year or next year for sure.

      Delete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Oct. 7 Reports Implode: Beheaded Babies, NY Times Scandal, & More

Glenn Greenwald    

Πώς ο Γκρίνμπεργκ μπορεί να θάψει το καθεστώς Μητσοτάκη

του system failure    Είναι ξεκάθαρο ότι η αναμφίβολη πρωτοκαθεδρία του καθεστώτος Μητσοτάκη οφείλεται σχεδόν αποκλειστικά σε μια άκρως επιθετική επικοινωνιακή εκστρατεία που είχε καταφέρει μέχρι στιγμής να κρύβει κάτω από το χαλί (τουλάχιστον ως ένα βαθμό) τον αυταρχισμό και τη διαφθορά του καθεστώτος, καθώς και τις καταστροφικές πολιτικές που εφαρμόζει.  Και δεν είναι πλέον μυστικό, ότι ο άνθρωπος-κλειδί πίσω από αυτή την εκστρατεία είναι ο Αμερικανός δημοσιοσχετίστας, Σταν Γκρίνμπεργκ .    Όμως καθώς το καθεστώς επαναπαύθηκε στις δάφνες της νίκης των τελευταίων βουλευτικών εκλογών, τα μεγάλα προβλήματα συνέχισαν να συσσωρεύονται και φάνηκε ότι το καθεστώς είτε δεν ήθελε, είτε δεν μπόρεσε να τα αντιμετωπίσει. Έτσι, είδαμε σε σύντομο χρονικό διάστημα να έρχονται τα πρώτα σημαντικά πλήγματα στην πρωτοκαθεδρία του, μέσα από τα αποτελέσματα των δημοτικών και περιφερειακών εκλογών. Παρόλα αυτά, η αλαζονεία των καθεστωτικών στελεχών παρέμεινε αμετάβλητη, καθώς θεώρησαν ότι η τραγωδία των Τ

Zionist and US imperialist criminals are about to grab the natural gas off shore Gaza

globinfo freexchange   As the genocide against Palestinians of Gaza is about to be completed with an act of unprecedented brutality by the Zionists and butcher Netanyahu through the bombardment of about 1.4 million civilians in Rafah, it seems that they have already set their next primary goal. Which, in short, is to grab the natural gas resources off shore Gaza, together with their US imperialist buddies whose contribution to the genocide has been undoubtedly critical.     As already reported , in 2007, Hamas came to power and Israel launched an offensive on Gaza Strip, leaving behind 1,400 dead Palestinians, but taking with it the gas fields. Within a year, Israel announced the discovery of the Leviathan natural gas field, which did include Gaza's riches, valued at 453 billion dollars. But Gazans have been denied around 47 billion dollars in revenue. As for Tel Aviv, it's gunning to become a new hub. At that moment in time, that is 2022, Russian oil and gas were sanctioned.

Israel’s Descent Into Madness & the Holocaust Comparison

BreakThrough News   Rania Khalek was joined by Tarik Cyril Amar, a historian from Germany and associate professor at Koc University in Istanbul, to discuss Israel’s descent into genocidal fascism. Prof. Amar addresses whether it’s useful to make Holocaust and Nazi comparisons and the real reason behind the West’s unshakeable loyalty attitude when it comes to Israel’s barbarism.   

Neocon Queen Victoria Nuland Ends Her Reign: Exposing a Catastrophic Career

Glenn Greenwald    

The Shadowy, Intelligence-Linked Group Driving the US Towards War With Iran

"United Against Nuclear Iran does not miss an opportunity to try to bring the United States closer to a military conflict with Iran. And on the other side of the equation, they also have worked very hard to oppose efforts to de-escalate the U.S.-Iran relationship."   by Alan Macleod   Part 7 - A Lesson From History   The history of Iran has been intimately intertwined with the United States since at least 1953 when Washington orchestrated a successful coup against Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh. Mosaddegh had refused U.S. demands to stamp out Communist influences in his country and had nationalized the nation’s oil. The U.S. installed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as a puppet ruler. An unpopular and authoritarian ruler, the Shah was overthrown in the Revolution of 1979. Since then, it has become a target for regime change, and its nuclear program is something of an obsession in the West. Often orchestrated by UANI officials while they were in government, the U.S. has carried

Το σκάσιμο της φούσκας Μητσοτάκη με νέα επίσημη χρεοκοπία και οριστικό τέλος της μεταπολίτευσης

του system failure   Τα αποτελέσματα των εκλογών της 25ης Ιουνίου ήταν λίγο-πολύ αναμενόμενα όσον αφορά τις πρώτες θέσεις με βάση και τα αποτελέσματα της πρώτης κάλπης του Μαίου. Αν συμπεριλάβουμε και το ποσοστό της αναμενόμενης αποχής, δεν μας έδωσαν κάποια ιδιαίτερη έκπληξη. Αυτό όμως που φαίνεται να αιφνιδίασε ακόμα και το συστημικό κατεστημένο, είναι η είσοδος των δύο υπερσυντηρητικών, ακροδεξιών κομμάτων Νίκη και Σπαρτιάτες, με το τελευταίο να έχει ξεκάθαρες διασυνδέσεις με τον πρώην Χρυσαυγίτη, Ηλία Κασιδιάρη. Παρά τη μεγάλη νίκη Μητσοτάκη, οι μιντιακοί ινστρούχτορες της καθεστωτικής προπαγάνδας εμφανίστηκαν σε γενικές γραμμές "μουδιασμένοι" και αυτό οφείλεται στο γεγονός ότι το συστημικό κατεστημένο (δηλαδή τα μεγάλα οικονομικά συμφέροντα που ελέγχουν και το σύνολο των μεγάλων ΜΜΕ πανελλαδικής εμβέλειας), πέτυχε μόνο έναν από τους τέσσερις μεγάλους στόχους που είχε θέσει εξ'αρχής. Μιλώντας με ποδοσφαιρικούς όρους, ουσιαστικά έχασε με σκορ 3-1.   Ο μεγάλος στόχος πο

Study Finds Media Giants New York Times, CNN, and Fox News Pushing for US War in Yemen

by Alan Macleod  Part 2 - Biased Reporting MintPress conducted a study of four leading American outlets: The New York Times , CNN, Fox News and NBC News. Together, these outlets often set the agenda for the rest of the media system and could be said to be a reasonable representation of the corporate media spectrum as a whole. Using the search term “Yemen” in the Dow Jones Factiva global news database, the fifteen most recent relevant articles from each outlet were read and studied, giving a total sample of 60 articles. All articles were published in January 2024 or December 2023. The study found the media wildly distorted reality, presenting a skewed picture that aided U.S. imperial ambitions. For one, every article in the study (60 out of 60) used the word “Houthis” rather than “Ansar Allah” to describe the movement which took part in the Yemeni Revolution of 2011 and rose up against the government in 2014, taking control of the capital Sanaa, becoming the new de facto government. Ma

The truth about Alexei Navalny

Glenn Greenwald / Dangerous Ideas with Lee Camp / The Hill /  

Top German military commanders plan direct attacks on Russia

by Johannes Stern  Top German generals and the German government are discussing in concrete terms how “Taurus” cruise missiles can be delivered to Ukraine and used against Russian targets. This emerged from an approximately 30-minute conversation on February 19, which was reportedly intercepted by Russian intelligence and published over the weekend by the Russian news channel RT. The conversation involved Air Force Inspector Ingo Gerhartz, Head of Operations and Exercises in the Luftwaffe Command Frank Gräfe and two lieutenant colonels of the Bundeswehr (armed forces) Space Command named Fenske and Florstedt. According to their own statements, the military commanders met to prepare a meeting with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (Social Democrats, SPD) and to discuss with him whether and how the Taurus can be delivered to Kiev and used against the nuclear-armed power Russia. Pistorius wanted to “ get really deep into Taurus, ” Gerhartz began the conversation. He leaves no doubt that he