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Increasing probability for a big European "collision" through Grexit

by system failure

As we approach closer to the end of the four-month truce period achieved by the Greek government during the negotiations with the lenders, more signs appear showing that we are heading towards a big "collision" in Europe. As already mentioned in previous article, it is extremely difficult for Alexis Tsipras and Angela Merkel to find, eventually, a common ground: “No matter how many meetings will be conducted between Tsipras and Merkel, there is no chance that they will meet somewhere in the middle. Chancellors' moderate stance to Tsipras' "audacity" is only a tactic retreat against the tactical, resolute move by the Greek government to use the Russian card, and force Obama to make another call to Merkel. There is no chance that they will meet, exactly because they serve conflicting interests. Merkel and the troika of course, represent bankers and lobbyists. Tsipras represents the majority of the people.” (http://failedevolution.blogspot.gr/2015/03/varoufakis-outside-katrougalos-inside.html)

Currently, there is a major psychological war from both sides through a bombardment of contradictory statements. The big difference now, is that this war is conducted equally from Greece and the European "empire", while under previous governments in Greece, this tactic was an exclusive monopoly of the European institutions and the IMF.

Starting from the latest article in Telegraph, some sources from the Greek side claimed that the country is ready to default on IMF, in order to be able to pay salaries and pensions. There are also claims that Greece prepares to return to national currency and nationalize banks. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11513341/Greece-draws-up-drachma-plans-prepares-to-miss-IMF-payment.html)

Some scenarios are already out there about how this will happen, and how the Greek government will take advantage of the Greek Orthodox Easter Holiday next week, to start circulating drachmas (https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2015/04/03/breaking-greece-to-default-late-hours-of-8th-april-sources/).

It appears that, the Greek government is playing the game with the terms of the Germans and the eurocrats, as the Greek officials counterattack through leaking statements that aim to transfer the pressure to the other side. However, these basic moves may be already prepared (http://failedevolution.blogspot.gr/2015/02/three-key-moves-new-greek-government.html), and ready to be applied, if necessary. Therefore, the Greeks may want to make clear that they are not bluffing.

Meanwhile, the repayment of IMF on 9 April is only one day after Tsipras' visit to Moscow. There is some information according to which, despite that the day of the visit has changed to a month earlier, "... Tsipras will return to Moscow again on 9 May to attend ceremonies marking the 70th anniversary of the end of the great patriotic war." (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/02/tsipras-moscow-risks-putin-useful-idiot) Everything shows that Moscow sees a great opportunity to exploit the situation, expanding Russia's geopolitical influence.

As part of 1st April jokes, some websites in Greece had circulated the false information that Tsipras is about to request the participation of Greece in the Eurasian Economic Union! However, such a perspective should not surprise us eventually! The Greek government may choose to show that there is no point to stay in the eurozone under such catastrophic conditions imposed by the lenders. There is no rule that forbids Greece to be part of the EU (not eurozone), while at the same time participate in other country formations, anyway.

Additionally, Greece may start to seek other alternatives. Apart from the BRICS solution, Greece may also turn to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), as many countries, even from the hard core of the Western bloc already applied to join. Latest examples, Portugal and Iceland (http://failedevolution.blogspot.gr/2015/04/aiib-rapid-expansion-to-west-continues.html).

All these developments certainly bring further panic to the Western economic oligarchy which sees that the balance could change rapidly in the European battlefield. With these puppets in power, Europe has no chance to compromise with Greece, find a real solution and change course for the benefit of the people. The only perspective for the moment is a big "collision" after the end of the truce period, or, maybe earlier. The battle outcome always depends on how the European people will react ...

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