Yesterday
the U.S. recognized a right-wing 'leader of the opposition' in
Venezuela Juan Guaido as the president of the country. A number of
right-wing led countries in South America joined in that move. Cuba,
Bolivia and Mexico rejected it. Russia, China, Iran and Turkey
continue to support the government of the elected President Nicolas
Maduro and spoke out against the coup attempt. The European Union has
no united opinion with the neo-liberal led France being pro-coup and
Spain standing against it.
Venezuela
must prepare for a multi year conflict while doing everything to keep
it as short as possible.
This
long planned U.S. move against the legitimate government of Venezuela
is just the start. It is designed to lead to escalation and very soon
mission creep - 'We can't stop here!' - will set in. More than 300
billion barrels of oil, the biggest oil reserves in the world, are at
stake. U.S: stooge Guaido promises to change Venezuela's oil law to
the advantage of the U.S., while the Bolivarian government uses the
oil to support the poor.
The game
plan for the current U.S. regime-change operation against the
government of Venezuela was written by Senator Marco Rubio with the
support of Vice President Pence: The American recognition of Mr.
Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate president is far more than a
symbolic measure, and presents new complications for Mr. Maduro. The
idea was avidly promoted by Senator Marco Rubio, a Florida Republican
who pushed the Trump administration to take such a step. In a speech
to the Senate on Jan. 15, Mr. Rubio said that designating Mr. Guaidó
as president would allow millions of dollars of Venezuelan government
assets frozen in the United States to be at the disposal of
opposition lawmakers, who could use them to fund new elections or
humanitarian assistance.
The
real amount the U.S. and Britain have 'frozen', or practically
stolen, from Venezuela amount to several billion dollars, not just a
few millions. Such 'freezing' of money owned by governments the U.S.
does not like has become all too common. Together with a raft of
other sanctions the economic war the U.S. has long waged against the
country made the recovery of the Venezuelan economy nearly
impossible.
As the
U.S. is now likely to confiscate all money that is supposed to flow
to Venezuela the country must stop its oil-exports to the United
States. A number of U.S. refineries, some owned by Venezuela, depend
on the special grade of Venezuelan oil and would soon run into
trouble. That could help to change the mood in Washington. China may
be interested in buying more Venezuelan oil.
The
opposition in Venezuela will probably use access to that 'frozen'
money to buy weapons and to create an army of mercenaries to fight a
'civil' war against the government and its followers. Like in Syria
U.S. special forces or some CIA 'contractors' will be eager to help.
The supply line for such a war would most likely run through
Colombia. If, like 2011 in Syria, a war on the ground is planned it
will likely begin in the cities near that border.
But
before a military conflict is launched the U.S. and the opposition in
Venezuela will try other paths.
After
the U.S. announcement Venezuela's president Maduro ordered all U.S.
diplomats in Caracas to leave the country within 72 hours. As the
U.S. no longer recognizes Maduro it rejected that. U.S. Secretary of
State Pompeo announced to "conduct our relations with
Venezuela through the government of interim President Guaido."
The rejection was most likely planned and is supposed to provoke a
too harsh reaction like a storming of the embassy.
Under a
normal process the Venezuelan government would now arrest the U.S.
diplomats as soon as they leave the legally protected embassy
compound. They would be put on a plane and evicted from the country.
But it seems likely that U.S. planned for this conflict and that the
diplomats are prepared to stay in the embassy for a long time.
The best
for Venezuela to do now is to simply isolate the embassy. It must be
well guarded to prevent false flag attacks against it. No visitors
should be allowed. All the embassy's communication lines should be
cut (it would still have satellite communication) and electricity and
water should be rationed. Humanitarian aid should be conceded only
after specific requests. It is important to play this 'by the book'
so that the U.S. can not use the issue to escalate.
The
'opposition leader' Juan Guaido committed treason. He, his staff and
the people behind him must be found and imprisoned. They should be
held in reasonable conditions but under strict military guard.
Before
starting a larger war the opposition will try to create unbearable
chaos on the streets. Like during the failed violent demonstrations
in 2016 the opposition rioters will be armed. Police will be attacked
and people on both sides will die. The probably best way to keep this
at a tolerable level is to snatch away those who are armed and
violent. The police will need good ground level intelligence to
achieve that.
The U.S.
seems prepared to see the coup through unless it has negative
consequences for its own position. Domestically the illegal regime
change attempt has support even from supposedly 'socialist'
Democrats.
The
U.S. propaganda apparatus, the mainstream media and various
propaganda 'bot' campaigns are fully engaged. The supposedly private
social media companies in the U.S. - Facebook, Instagram and Twitter
- have already de-recognized the official Maduro accounts. They no
longer have a 'verified' tick mark. Voice of America shows Guaido
declaring himself president among a crowd of a few hundred
supporters. It then (1:05min) cuts to a much larger crowd at a
different location falsely suggesting that he has a large following.
There are trucks with anti-Maduro advertisements driving in U.S.
cities and various propaganda accounts post false pictures or make
otherwise false claims. This sudden change of location is cute
in its fatuity.
The
Venezuelan government should consult with Syria and Russia on how to
win such a conflict. The most important step Maduro has to take is to
shore up his ground support. While the Bolivarian movement under
Chavez and now Maduro still has a large backing, it lost some support
from the poor due to the economic malaise after the fall of the oil
prices. The situation is to some extent caused by U.S. sanctions but
a significant part is also caused by misguided economic policies and
corruption. The billions of credits and investment brought in by
Russia and China have not been put to good use.
A well
concerted anti-corruption campaign will help to increase the public
support and will give China and Russia more confidence to stick to
the legitimate government.
Another
step must be an early dialog with reasonable parts of the opposition.
While lots of people may not like the Maduro government many of them
will disagree with the obviously U.S.-led intervention. These people
can be won over. The Catholic church could be asked to mediate talks
with them.
The
Venezuelan military has promised to support its elected president. He
should use it to react early against any attempt of violent
escalation. The lesson to learn from the conflict in Syria it is that
a prolonged conflict will cause more casualties and damage than an
early, sharp and thereby decisive reaction to an incubating war.
I am
confident that Venezuela and its people can resist this onslaught.
But the government needs to respond rationally and decisively. It
must consult closely with its major allies and plan for a prolonged
conflict.
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