WikiLeaks paper reveals key player in the first Argentinian collapse expressed to US officials his desire to overthrow Kirchner and bring back the IMF
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A cable
from February 2009, reveals that Domingo Cavallo*, a key
player in the 2001 Argentinian collapse, was expressing to the US
side his desire to see the IMF return to Argentina. He was also
expressing his desire to see the Kirchner administration 'replaced'
before 2011, apparently by a more friendly-to-IMF administration.
The
comment at the end of the cable reveals that the US side was
acknowledging that Cavallo had zero credibility in Argentina as he
“also is far from being free from blame for
the economic troubles Argentina has endured of the last decade”.
However,
at the end of the comment the US side indirectly gives the impression
that Cavallo could be proved useful to some extent as “there is
also a growing chorus that agrees with him that the best available
solution to Argentina's predicament is to make right with the IMF.”
Key
parts:
The
post-crisis Kirchner model no longer works and Argentina is headed
for "stagflation," according to controversial Argentine
ex-Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo. During a meeting with the
Ambassador, Cavallo suggested that returning to the IMF may be the
only way to alleviate Argentina's problems, and noted the only reason
for optimism is that the Kirchners are in decline and their
successors are sure to do a better job. He said Peronist party
leaders were already considering alternatives to the Kirchners, and a
scenario certainly exists that has the Kirchners leaving office prior
to 2011. Cavallo's worries about the economy and likely increase
in social tension were interspersed with arguments justifying his own
pre-2001 collapse decisions and blaming the 2002 pesification decrees
for much of Argentina's current predicament. Cavallo also
recommended the USG use the G-20 discussions to moderate the
Kirchners' economic policies.
So, the
GoA needs financing, but "will not follow the world's rules
to get it," said Cavallo. He called it "crazy"
that the GoA could not negotiate a debt restructuring deal with the
Paris Club just because it refused to submit to the requirement of
having a current IMF program.
The
clear solution, he claimed, is to do what many other countries with
easy access to IMF lending are doing. However, Argentina is not
even submitting to Article IV consultations because it refuses to
acknowledge that national statistics agency INDEC is tampering with
inflation statistics. In television interviews, Cavallo emphasizes
this point, arguing that the GoA does not want to admit that INDEC is
lying about the real level of inflation, "but every Argentine
knows that INDEC is lying, so the government should just admit that
INDEC was lying but won't anymore."
Despite
his pessimistic outlook for the economy, Cavallo is optimistic that
the administration that follows the Kirchners will act quickly to
reintegrate Argentina into the world.
Amidst
expressing concerns about the economy and the potential for social
unrest, Cavallo provided justifications for his own actions in 2001
leading up to the December 2001 financial crisis and sovereign
default. He blamed much of the crisis on "as series
of errors committed by the IMF," culminating in the
Fund's decision not to disburse the tranche scheduled for November
2001 ("at a time when the U.S. was distracted with
9/11").
Comment:
Cavallo
remains a polarizing personality in Argentina, and has limited
influence or presence in the country at the moment. He also is far
from being free from blame for the economic troubles Argentina has
endured of the last decade. Therefore, his criticisms of the current
governments policies tend to lack credibility with some Argentine
audiences. Nevertheless, many of his comments on the economy seem
to ring true, from Post's perspective, and there is also a growing
chorus that agrees with him that the best available solution to
Argentina's predicament is to make right with the IMF.
Full
cable:
So, here
we are. Cavallo's dream eventually becomes true. IMF mafia invades
for a second time in Argentina, after another neoliberal government
under Washington puppet, Mauricio Macri, sets the preconditions
through the common policies of neoliberal destruction.
As
Michael Hudson pointed
out:
The
neoliberal policy has its aim rolling back any of the wage increases
in employment that Mrs. Kirschner, the former president, implied, as
part of the class war. So, in order to shrink the economy, you have
to basically cut back business, cut back employment. And so, the
purpose of the IMF loan was to enable the wealthy Argentinians, the
oligarchy that’s run the country for a century, to get all its
money out and run.
What
Macri has done, is they agree with the IMF to wage class war with a
vengeance, devaluation, leaving Argentina so hopelessly indebted that
it can’t possibly repay the IMF loan. So, what we’re seeing is a
replay of what happened in 2001.
*
Domingo Felipe "Mingo" Cavallo is an Argentine economist
and politician. He has a track record of public service and is known
for implementing the Convertibilidad plan, which fixed the
dollar-peso exchange rate at 1:1 between 1991 and 2001. This brought
the Argentine inflation rate down from over 1,300% in 1990 to less
than 20% in 1992 and nearly to zero during the rest of the 1990s.
Guided by his politics, Argentina entered into one of the most
difficult crisis in its history. He is also well known for
implementing the corralito, which restrained Argentine citizens from
withdrawing money from their bank accounts. This was followed by the
December 2001 riots and the fall of President Fernando de la Rúa. In
2015, he was sentenced for embezzlement, following an appeal. A
definitive sentence still awaits.
Primero que nada, vamos a corregir el título:
ReplyDeleteWikiLeaks paper reveals synopsis article posted on his blog by key player in the first one of many Argentinian collapses. expressed to US officials He also wrote that a possible solution is a new government with IMF support.
Cavallo posteó esto en el 2008 en su blog, luego de publicar su libro "Stagflation". Ok? Ninguna conspiración, ningún secreto. El Artículo es meramente una sinopsis de las cosas que dijo Cavallo en su blog y en su libro, ambos perfectamente públicos. En ningún momento el cable habla de ninguna reunión con ningún "key US official", ni nada parecido.
A su vez, en ningún momento el cable habla de que Cavallo haya sugerido un golpe a los Kirchner (ni nunca dijo nada de eso), asique "overthrow" las pelotas.
Yo entiendo que sean pelotudos, si no lo fueran no podrían ser de izquierda, pero al menos ponganle ganas. Esto ya es low-effort total.