Your browser does not support the HTML5 canvas tag.

17 May, 2018

The real reason Europe will likely not follow Trump towards a devastating war with Iran


Recent developments show that Europe was expecting a possible sabotage of the deal for the Iran nuclear program by the US.

As RT reports:

The European Union is planning to switch payments to the euro for its oil purchases from Iran, eliminating US dollar transactions, a diplomatic source told RIA Novosti.

Brussels has been at odds with Washington over the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, which was reached during the administration of Barack Obama. President Donald Trump has pledged to re-impose sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

[...]

Earlier this week, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said that the foreign ministers of the UK, France, Germany, and Iran had agreed to work out practical solutions in response to Washington’s move in the next few weeks. The bloc is reportedly planning to maintain and deepen economic ties with Iran, including in the area of oil and gas supplies.

[...]

At the same time, dozens of contracts signed between European businesses and the Islamic Republic could be at risk of cancellation if Brussels obeys Washington’s sanctions. This would damage Iran’s economy and European firms would lose a huge market in the Middle East. Switching to alternative settlement currencies allows both sides to continue trading despite US sanctions.


Recall that already since April, 18, Iran announced that switches from dollar to euro for official reporting currency. It was an action that would certainly make the US empire even more furious and Iranians knew it. So, it is doubtful that they would had proceed in such an action without pre-arrangement with Europe, securing that the Europeans will stay in the deal for the nuclear program.

As Iran has been a longtime target for the US empire, it seems that its leadership has changed strategy towards a much more flexible foreign policy. Apart from repeated efforts to decouple economy from petrodollar and further approach with the SinoRussian bloc, Iran attempted further approach with the Europeans too.

More than a year ago, Iran had opened the door to the European big oil corporations after the removal of sanctions.

As PressTV reported:

Gholam-Reza Manouchehri, the deputy for development and engineering affairs of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), was quoted by the domestic media as saying that 12 contracts had already been awarded to companies since the removal of sanctions against Iran in January. [...] The first major contract that Iran awarded after the removal of the sanctions was one for the development of Phase 11 of the country’s South Pars gas field. The contract was awarded in November to a consortium led by France’s Total. Another major contract was one that was shortly afterwards signed with the global energy giant Shell for studying three major oil and gas fields in southern Iran.

Notice that the move has happened right after Donald Trump's election. Trump has been an open book for the Iranians, signaling from the first moment that he was determined to provoke war. So, this was an additional reason for Iran to design a more flexible and multidimensional strategy, taking advantage of the serious cracks inside the Western alliance, which naturally widened after Trump in power.

It is worth noting also that the transatlantic war between the US and the European (mostly German) big capital, culminated and clearly became obvious right before Trump's election.


The only weak link inside the Europeans is again the UK. Not only because of Brexit and the general re-approach with the US. The weak conservative government will have a very difficult time to keep balance between different economic interests inside the country. Despite the presence of big oil in Iran, the arms lobby will sense a great danger of losing huge profits. That's because Saudi Arabia (and the powerful Israeli lobby) may push the British government to follow the US against Iran, otherwise it may stop buying British arms. Theresa May will find herself in a more difficult position as she has already been heavily accused that she faithfully obeys to Trump's orders by the opposition, especially after bombing Syria together with the US and France, without the approval of the British parliament.

Against Iran's rather smart strategy, Trump has exhibited a nearly amateurish behavior. Instead of responding with a similar sophisticated strategy inside this hard geopolitical battlefield, he essentially did everything that Iran wanted. He worsened relations with Western allies, reduced his influence inside the UN security council, and internationally isolated the US even more. It seems that after his preposterous decision to transfer the US embassy to Jerusalem, he has been left only with Netanyahu as a real ally, for now.

Trump acted with anger. He rushed to kill the deal with Iran and formed a warmongering team, screaming for war.

Trump has put the US in a position with very limited options. The US deep state has no chance to drag Europeans into another devastating war, except perhaps through a series of extreme, well-staged false flag operations. Very difficult mission in an age where the power of typical pro-war propaganda is losing ground rapidly, even in the eyes of the American public.

No comments:

Post a Comment