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Πόσο κοντά είμαστε σε πυρηνικό πόλεμο;

του Δημήτρη Κωνσταντακόπουλου

Μέρος 5ο - Η εκδίκηση της πολιτικής

Η ανακάλυψη των πυρηνικών όπλων τροποποίησε βαθιά, αλλά δεν ακύρωσε το αξίωμα του Κλαζούζεβιτς: Ο Πόλεμος είναι συνέχεια της Πολιτικής με άλλα μέσα.

Γιατί οι κοινωνίες δεν είναι ανόργανη ύλη, δεν καθορίζεται ντετερμινιστικά η πορεία τους. Πίσω από κάθε απόφαση χρήσης ενός όπλου υπάρχει μια ανθρώπινη βούληση. Οι άνθρωποι όμως είναι ικανοί για λογικές, αλλά και για εντελώς παράλογες συμπεριφορές, για σωφροσύνη και για παραφορσύνη.

Για να λειτουργήσει η πυρηνική αποτροπή χρειάζεται ένα μίνιμουμ επίπεδο ορθολογισμού στο παγκόσμιο σύστημα, αλλοιώς η ύπαρξη πυρηνικών οπλοστασίων μπορεί να οδηγήσει σε αμοιβαία καταστροφή. Κι αυτό που βλέπουμε σήμερα στο παγκόσμιο σύστημα είναι η σταδιακή καταστροφή του ορθολογισμού, σύμπτωμα κοινωνιών που δεν μπορούν να λύσουν τα προβλήματά τους.

Ο Μαρξ είπε ότι οι άνθρωποι, οι κοινωνίες βάζουν στον εαυτό τους τα προβλήματα που μπορούν να λύσουν. Προφανώς δεν βάζουν αυτά που δεν μπορούν να λύσουν. ‘Η τα βάζουν με λάθος, καταστροφικό και παραπλανητικό τρόπο (όπως συνέβη με τους ολοκληρωτισμούς του μεσοπολέμου ή με τον Τραμπ και την Λεπέν σήμερα).

Ο ίδιος ο Πρόεδρος των Ηνωμένων Πολιτειών π.χ. αμφισβητεί ανοιχτά τα πορίσματα της Επιστήμης, δηλαδή την Επιστήμη, στο μείζον, καθοριστικής σημασίας για την επιβίωση της ζωής πρόβλημα της Κλιματικής Αλλαγής.

Αμερικανοί επίσημοι συγκρίνουν τον Πούτιν με τον Χίτλερ, δηλαδή πληροφορούν τους Ρώσους αναλυτές ότι πιθανώς ετοιμάζουν πόλεμο εναντίον της Ρωσίας. Τι θα γίνει αύριο αν συμβεί ένα λάθος στα συστήματα έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης, όπως τόσες φορές στην ιστορία; Αυτοί που θα πρέπει να πάρουν τις αποφάσεις, θα επηρεαστούν όχι μόνο από αυτό που βλέπουν στις οθόνες των ραντάρ, αλλά και από αυτό που εκτιμούν ως πιθανό να συμβαίνει. Πολύ περισσότερο όταν αυτά θα συμβαίνουν σε ένα κυβερνο-περιβάλλον διασποράς πληροφορίας με ρυθμούς και σε ποσότητες που υπερβαίνουν την ικανότητα του ανθρώπινου μυαλού να τις αξιολογήσει.

Η ψυχροπολεμική ρητορεία που άρχισε η Κυρία Κλίντον και συνεχίζει με έργα, όχι με λόγια, ο Τραμπ, καταστρέφει το ελάχιστο κοινά αποδεκτών κανόνων συμπεριφοράς, την ελάχιστη βάση κοινής κατανόησης του κόσμου, μεταξύ των πυρηνικών υπερδυνάμεων. Το ίδιο άλλωστε έκανε και η κατάργηση της συνθήκης για τα αντιβαλλιστικά όπλα ΑΒΜ, καταστρέφοντας το θεμέλιο της δομής του ελέγχου των εξοπλισμών που επέβαλλε μάλιστα η ίδια η Αμερική, για να αποτρέψει από τον κίνδυνο αιφνιδιαστικού πρώτου πλήγματος.

Σήμερα στην Αμερική, δεν κουβεντιάζουν για την πολιτική της χώρας τους ή για την πολιτική της Ρωσίας και της Κίνας. Δεν κουβεντιάζουν ούτε για το τι περιέχουν ή όχι τα μέιλ της Κλίντον ή τι πραγματικά κάνει ο Τραμπ. Κουβεντιάζουν αν οι Ρώσοι υπέκλεψαν ή όχι αυτά τα μέιλ. Επιχειρείται δηλαδή να ταυτισθεί μια βασικά φιλειρηνική δύναμη, όπως η Ρωσία, με έναν Πρόεδρο που η οικονομική και κοινωνική του πολιτική έρχεται σε σύγκρουση με μεγάλα τμήματα της αμερικανικής κοινωνίας. Τα τμήματα αυτά αντικειμενικά θα μπορούσαν να είναι «σύμμαχα» με τη Ρωσία στην επιδίωξη ανατροπής των παγκόσμιων πολεμικών τυχοδιωκτισμών, όπως σε μεγάλο βαθμό έγινε σε όλη τη μεταπολεμική περίοδο, γιατί αυτοί οι τυχωδιωκτισμοί δεν είναι προς το συμφέρον τους. (1)

Μόνο η επανεμφάνιση της πολιτικής μπορεί να σταματήσει την πορεία προς τον Πόλεμο – η ισοτιμία στα όπλα δεν φτάνει. Μόνο η έγκαιρη συνειδητοποίηση των κινδύνων και η κινητοποίηση παγκοσμίως για να αποτραπούν, της κοινής γνώμης και των πολιτικών δυνάμεων, μπορεί να αποτρέψει τον πόλεμο. Μακροχρόνια άλλωστε είναι αδύνατο να καταπολεμηθεί το σύμπτωμα χωρίς να πολεμηθεί η αιτία. Μόνο η εμφάνιση μιας σοβαρής ολοκληρωμένης εναλλακτικής σε έναν κόσμο «προϊστορικό και βάρβαρο» στην οικονομία, στις κοινωνικές και τις διεθνείς σχέσεις, στον Πολιτισμό, ενός εναλλακτικού οράματος στην ιδεολογία του παγκόσμιου χρηματιστικού κεφαλαίου που σήμερα κυριαρχεί, μόνο η κινητοποίηση μεγάλων κοινωνικών δυνάμεων, διανοουμένων και κρατών, μπορεί να λύσει και το πρόβλημα του πολέμου και της επιβίωσης της ανθρωπότητας.

Σημείωση

1. Το ενδιαφέρον είναι ότι η απίθανη υπόθεση Τραμπ εξ αντικειμένου επέφερε βαρύ πλήγμα και στην εικόνα της Αμερικής ως «εχθρού» στη ρωσική κοινή γνώμη. ‘Όταν η Μοσκόβσκι Κομσομόλετς γράφει π.χ. τόσο μεγάλες ανοησίες όπως ότι η εκλογή Τραμπ στον Λευκό Οίκο είναι σαν την κατάληψη των Χειμερινών Ανακτόρων από τους Μπολσεβίκους (!!!), η σύγχυση που δημιουργείται οδηγεί το ποσοστό των Ρώσων που εκτιμούν – ορθώς – την Αμερική ως εχθρό, να πέσει από το μάλλον ήδη χαμηλό 42% στο 8%. Αν υπάρχει μια σταθερά στη ρωσική ιστορία είναι ότι αυτή η χώρα δεν μπορεί να καταληφθεί εξ εφόδου, με επίθεση. Μπορεί να καταστραφεί μόνο αν μπερδέψει τους φίλους και τους εχθρούς της. Η ΕΣΣΔ παρολίγον να καταστραφεί το 1941 με αυτόν τον μηχανισμό και κατεστράφη τελικά με την ίδια μέθοδο το 1991. ‘Ενας λόγος που επεβίωσε η εξουσία του Κομμουνιστικού Κόμματος στην Κίνα είναι ότι πάντα η επικοινωνιακή πολιτική διατήρησε την εικόνα της Δύσης ως εχθρού. Σε κάθε περίπτωση, η σταθερότητα της εσωτερικής κατάστασης στη Ρωσία είναι άρρηκτα συνδεδεμένη με τον τρόπο που καταλαβαίνει η ελίτ και η κοινή γνώμη της χώρας τα θέματα της εξωτερικής πολιτικής και της διεθνούς κατάστασης.

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Πηγή:


[1] [2] [3] [4]

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