Skip to main content

Two cataclysmic events that may precede and even overshadow Brexit

by system failure

The UK withdrawal process from the EU has officially started with the letter sent by the British PM, Theresa May, to the European Council president, Donald Tusk. It has been estimated already (rather reasonably), that the two-year period until the final completion of Brexit is quite a short time, which means that much more time will be needed for all the issues to be resolved between the two parts.

As the developments in Europe and globally change rapidly, we can think at least two cataclysmic events that may occur before the final “divorce” between the UK and the EU, that may overshadow Brexit, and lead Europe to an even more uncertain path compared to the one that has already entered.

Frexit

The most immediate, big event, is the oncoming French presidential election, which will determine to a great extent the fate of the eurozone and perhaps the European Union.

All the recent polls show a tight battle between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. They will be probably the two candidates that will make it to the final round. According to the newstatesman , “Marine Le Pen, the anti-EU leader of the populist National Front, is gaining ground. For the first time, the far-right could win France – no one can predict the outcome of this election.

In case that the far-right will take over France, we should expect rapid developments towards the breakup of the European Union. Le Pen promised that she will take France out of the European Union and even NATO. While the UK was anyway a "distant player" inside the EU, France resides in the hard-core of the Union being also member of the eurozone. The Germans have bet heavily on the cooperation with France and invested for years on the Franco-German axis, in order to dominate progressively and silently in the continent through the monetary union.

As described in previous article, while Brexit may be even convenient for Germany's plans to establish permanently its domination in Europe, a possible Frexit may lead to the opposite results: “Currently, the French political establishment follows Germany to the letter. That's because both the German and the French political establishment serve the big European capital through the neoliberal doctrine. It had become quite obvious especially when they sacrificed Greece to save the German and the French banks. However, things are changing rapidly in Europe. It seems that the political parties, i.e. the Social Democrats and the Popular RIght, that dominated the European political scene for, at least the last forty years, are collapsing. Therefore, things can go wrong for Germany also with the potential rise of Marine Le Pen in power. Recall that, recently, Le Pen stated that she will take France out not only from NATO, but also from the EU.

The loss of France will leave a huge gap between the north and the south of the EU. France was playing the connective factor (even superficially) between the hard-core and the periphery of the eurozone. A possible Frexit will accelerate the instability inside the eurozone and the EU, leading to an ugly breakup of the Union quite faster than the final Brexit. Under such a big disaster, Brexit may even seem to be pointless.

The breakup of the eurozone

Eurocrats are trying to hide the big problems of eurozone instead of dealing straight with them. As their first priority is to retain a failed neoliberal model of austerity, deregulation and privatization at the expense of the European people, they pretend that there is no need for a different path. And this illusion continues despite the additional problems from the refugee crisis, as well as the rapid rise of the nationalists and the far-right throughout Europe.

There are at least three dangerous situations that may lead to the breakup of the eurozone, even before the final Brexit.

The first one has to do with the Italian banking system which seems that is facing huge problems and is being kept in life thanks to Draghi and his large liquidity injections through the ECB. Italy has to deal also with a big national debt. However, the policies dictated by Brussels and Berlin continue to suffocate the European south. They prefer to retain the recipe of destruction instead of changing these policies towards real growth that could boost the economy. Through cash injections, they pretend that the Italian problem is about to be fixed, yet the danger of a sudden banking burst of the Italian banking system could blow up the whole eurozone, any moment.

The second one involves the banking mega-monster called Deutsche Bank. The largest bank in Germany, is significantly exposed, holding dubious financial products known as "derivatives", worth 67 trillion euros, in 2015. This amount is similar to the GDP of the entire world and 20 times greater than the GDP of Germany. Any comparison with the situation of the bank Lehman Brothers in 2008 would not be irrelevant. Just when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, had available derivatives of only 31.5 trillion. The crisis of 2008 confirmed the concise definition of derivatives as proposed by the American tycoon Warren Buffet: "financial weapons of mass destruction."

While Angela Merkel sacrificed Greece to save Deutsche Bank and the other Franco-German banks, this time has no excuses. She has run out of scapegoats in case that the German banking monster will need another huge bailout to avoid collapse.

Yet, Merkel may not have to deal with the mess that she and her minister of finance have created. As they may lose in the oncoming German election, they will deliver the Deutsche Bank huge timebomb to the hands of the next government.

The third dangerous situation that may blow up eurozone, is the refueling of the Grexit discussion. It seems that Greece's creditors have stuck in a dead-end situation because they have absolutely nothing positive to exhibit concerning the Greek "program". Greece is sinking deeper in debt, unemployment remains in unprecedented high levels, and there are no signs of recovery in the close future.

The Greek society is literally exhausted from the brutal austerity imposed by the neoliberal priesthood and the possibility of Grexit starts to mature in the minds of Greeks. Creditors seem to ignore the danger of the situation and ask for more brutal measures, believing that the Greeks will "obey" forever. Yet, more and more Greeks start to find Grexit as a solution, not as a disaster, as they already experience the disaster inside the monetary prison of the common currency.

According to some recent information, a secret ECB study estimated that Grexit would cost more than 1.5 trillion euros! Greece's creditors play with fire and in the case of an uncontrolled Grexit, the financial Tsunami will make Brexit irrelevant.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Oct. 7 Reports Implode: Beheaded Babies, NY Times Scandal, & More

Glenn Greenwald    

Πώς ο Γκρίνμπεργκ μπορεί να θάψει το καθεστώς Μητσοτάκη

του system failure    Είναι ξεκάθαρο ότι η αναμφίβολη πρωτοκαθεδρία του καθεστώτος Μητσοτάκη οφείλεται σχεδόν αποκλειστικά σε μια άκρως επιθετική επικοινωνιακή εκστρατεία που είχε καταφέρει μέχρι στιγμής να κρύβει κάτω από το χαλί (τουλάχιστον ως ένα βαθμό) τον αυταρχισμό και τη διαφθορά του καθεστώτος, καθώς και τις καταστροφικές πολιτικές που εφαρμόζει.  Και δεν είναι πλέον μυστικό, ότι ο άνθρωπος-κλειδί πίσω από αυτή την εκστρατεία είναι ο Αμερικανός δημοσιοσχετίστας, Σταν Γκρίνμπεργκ .    Όμως καθώς το καθεστώς επαναπαύθηκε στις δάφνες της νίκης των τελευταίων βουλευτικών εκλογών, τα μεγάλα προβλήματα συνέχισαν να συσσωρεύονται και φάνηκε ότι το καθεστώς είτε δεν ήθελε, είτε δεν μπόρεσε να τα αντιμετωπίσει. Έτσι, είδαμε σε σύντομο χρονικό διάστημα να έρχονται τα πρώτα σημαντικά πλήγματα στην πρωτοκαθεδρία του, μέσα από τα αποτελέσματα των δημοτικών και περιφερειακών εκλογών. Παρόλα αυτά, η αλαζονεία των καθεστωτικών στελεχών παρέμεινε αμετάβλητη, καθώς θεώρησαν ότι η τραγωδία των Τ

Zionist and US imperialist criminals are about to grab the natural gas off shore Gaza

globinfo freexchange   As the genocide against Palestinians of Gaza is about to be completed with an act of unprecedented brutality by the Zionists and butcher Netanyahu through the bombardment of about 1.4 million civilians in Rafah, it seems that they have already set their next primary goal. Which, in short, is to grab the natural gas resources off shore Gaza, together with their US imperialist buddies whose contribution to the genocide has been undoubtedly critical.     As already reported , in 2007, Hamas came to power and Israel launched an offensive on Gaza Strip, leaving behind 1,400 dead Palestinians, but taking with it the gas fields. Within a year, Israel announced the discovery of the Leviathan natural gas field, which did include Gaza's riches, valued at 453 billion dollars. But Gazans have been denied around 47 billion dollars in revenue. As for Tel Aviv, it's gunning to become a new hub. At that moment in time, that is 2022, Russian oil and gas were sanctioned.

Israel’s Descent Into Madness & the Holocaust Comparison

BreakThrough News   Rania Khalek was joined by Tarik Cyril Amar, a historian from Germany and associate professor at Koc University in Istanbul, to discuss Israel’s descent into genocidal fascism. Prof. Amar addresses whether it’s useful to make Holocaust and Nazi comparisons and the real reason behind the West’s unshakeable loyalty attitude when it comes to Israel’s barbarism.   

Neocon Queen Victoria Nuland Ends Her Reign: Exposing a Catastrophic Career

Glenn Greenwald    

The Shadowy, Intelligence-Linked Group Driving the US Towards War With Iran

"United Against Nuclear Iran does not miss an opportunity to try to bring the United States closer to a military conflict with Iran. And on the other side of the equation, they also have worked very hard to oppose efforts to de-escalate the U.S.-Iran relationship."   by Alan Macleod   Part 7 - A Lesson From History   The history of Iran has been intimately intertwined with the United States since at least 1953 when Washington orchestrated a successful coup against Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh. Mosaddegh had refused U.S. demands to stamp out Communist influences in his country and had nationalized the nation’s oil. The U.S. installed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as a puppet ruler. An unpopular and authoritarian ruler, the Shah was overthrown in the Revolution of 1979. Since then, it has become a target for regime change, and its nuclear program is something of an obsession in the West. Often orchestrated by UANI officials while they were in government, the U.S. has carried

Το σκάσιμο της φούσκας Μητσοτάκη με νέα επίσημη χρεοκοπία και οριστικό τέλος της μεταπολίτευσης

του system failure   Τα αποτελέσματα των εκλογών της 25ης Ιουνίου ήταν λίγο-πολύ αναμενόμενα όσον αφορά τις πρώτες θέσεις με βάση και τα αποτελέσματα της πρώτης κάλπης του Μαίου. Αν συμπεριλάβουμε και το ποσοστό της αναμενόμενης αποχής, δεν μας έδωσαν κάποια ιδιαίτερη έκπληξη. Αυτό όμως που φαίνεται να αιφνιδίασε ακόμα και το συστημικό κατεστημένο, είναι η είσοδος των δύο υπερσυντηρητικών, ακροδεξιών κομμάτων Νίκη και Σπαρτιάτες, με το τελευταίο να έχει ξεκάθαρες διασυνδέσεις με τον πρώην Χρυσαυγίτη, Ηλία Κασιδιάρη. Παρά τη μεγάλη νίκη Μητσοτάκη, οι μιντιακοί ινστρούχτορες της καθεστωτικής προπαγάνδας εμφανίστηκαν σε γενικές γραμμές "μουδιασμένοι" και αυτό οφείλεται στο γεγονός ότι το συστημικό κατεστημένο (δηλαδή τα μεγάλα οικονομικά συμφέροντα που ελέγχουν και το σύνολο των μεγάλων ΜΜΕ πανελλαδικής εμβέλειας), πέτυχε μόνο έναν από τους τέσσερις μεγάλους στόχους που είχε θέσει εξ'αρχής. Μιλώντας με ποδοσφαιρικούς όρους, ουσιαστικά έχασε με σκορ 3-1.   Ο μεγάλος στόχος πο

Study Finds Media Giants New York Times, CNN, and Fox News Pushing for US War in Yemen

by Alan Macleod  Part 2 - Biased Reporting MintPress conducted a study of four leading American outlets: The New York Times , CNN, Fox News and NBC News. Together, these outlets often set the agenda for the rest of the media system and could be said to be a reasonable representation of the corporate media spectrum as a whole. Using the search term “Yemen” in the Dow Jones Factiva global news database, the fifteen most recent relevant articles from each outlet were read and studied, giving a total sample of 60 articles. All articles were published in January 2024 or December 2023. The study found the media wildly distorted reality, presenting a skewed picture that aided U.S. imperial ambitions. For one, every article in the study (60 out of 60) used the word “Houthis” rather than “Ansar Allah” to describe the movement which took part in the Yemeni Revolution of 2011 and rose up against the government in 2014, taking control of the capital Sanaa, becoming the new de facto government. Ma

Top German military commanders plan direct attacks on Russia

by Johannes Stern  Top German generals and the German government are discussing in concrete terms how “Taurus” cruise missiles can be delivered to Ukraine and used against Russian targets. This emerged from an approximately 30-minute conversation on February 19, which was reportedly intercepted by Russian intelligence and published over the weekend by the Russian news channel RT. The conversation involved Air Force Inspector Ingo Gerhartz, Head of Operations and Exercises in the Luftwaffe Command Frank Gräfe and two lieutenant colonels of the Bundeswehr (armed forces) Space Command named Fenske and Florstedt. According to their own statements, the military commanders met to prepare a meeting with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (Social Democrats, SPD) and to discuss with him whether and how the Taurus can be delivered to Kiev and used against the nuclear-armed power Russia. Pistorius wanted to “ get really deep into Taurus, ” Gerhartz began the conversation. He leaves no doubt that he

The truth about Alexei Navalny

Glenn Greenwald / Dangerous Ideas with Lee Camp / The Hill /