Skip to main content

Two cataclysmic events that may precede and even overshadow Brexit

by system failure

The UK withdrawal process from the EU has officially started with the letter sent by the British PM, Theresa May, to the European Council president, Donald Tusk. It has been estimated already (rather reasonably), that the two-year period until the final completion of Brexit is quite a short time, which means that much more time will be needed for all the issues to be resolved between the two parts.

As the developments in Europe and globally change rapidly, we can think at least two cataclysmic events that may occur before the final “divorce” between the UK and the EU, that may overshadow Brexit, and lead Europe to an even more uncertain path compared to the one that has already entered.

Frexit

The most immediate, big event, is the oncoming French presidential election, which will determine to a great extent the fate of the eurozone and perhaps the European Union.

All the recent polls show a tight battle between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. They will be probably the two candidates that will make it to the final round. According to the newstatesman , “Marine Le Pen, the anti-EU leader of the populist National Front, is gaining ground. For the first time, the far-right could win France – no one can predict the outcome of this election.

In case that the far-right will take over France, we should expect rapid developments towards the breakup of the European Union. Le Pen promised that she will take France out of the European Union and even NATO. While the UK was anyway a "distant player" inside the EU, France resides in the hard-core of the Union being also member of the eurozone. The Germans have bet heavily on the cooperation with France and invested for years on the Franco-German axis, in order to dominate progressively and silently in the continent through the monetary union.

As described in previous article, while Brexit may be even convenient for Germany's plans to establish permanently its domination in Europe, a possible Frexit may lead to the opposite results: “Currently, the French political establishment follows Germany to the letter. That's because both the German and the French political establishment serve the big European capital through the neoliberal doctrine. It had become quite obvious especially when they sacrificed Greece to save the German and the French banks. However, things are changing rapidly in Europe. It seems that the political parties, i.e. the Social Democrats and the Popular RIght, that dominated the European political scene for, at least the last forty years, are collapsing. Therefore, things can go wrong for Germany also with the potential rise of Marine Le Pen in power. Recall that, recently, Le Pen stated that she will take France out not only from NATO, but also from the EU.

The loss of France will leave a huge gap between the north and the south of the EU. France was playing the connective factor (even superficially) between the hard-core and the periphery of the eurozone. A possible Frexit will accelerate the instability inside the eurozone and the EU, leading to an ugly breakup of the Union quite faster than the final Brexit. Under such a big disaster, Brexit may even seem to be pointless.

The breakup of the eurozone

Eurocrats are trying to hide the big problems of eurozone instead of dealing straight with them. As their first priority is to retain a failed neoliberal model of austerity, deregulation and privatization at the expense of the European people, they pretend that there is no need for a different path. And this illusion continues despite the additional problems from the refugee crisis, as well as the rapid rise of the nationalists and the far-right throughout Europe.

There are at least three dangerous situations that may lead to the breakup of the eurozone, even before the final Brexit.

The first one has to do with the Italian banking system which seems that is facing huge problems and is being kept in life thanks to Draghi and his large liquidity injections through the ECB. Italy has to deal also with a big national debt. However, the policies dictated by Brussels and Berlin continue to suffocate the European south. They prefer to retain the recipe of destruction instead of changing these policies towards real growth that could boost the economy. Through cash injections, they pretend that the Italian problem is about to be fixed, yet the danger of a sudden banking burst of the Italian banking system could blow up the whole eurozone, any moment.

The second one involves the banking mega-monster called Deutsche Bank. The largest bank in Germany, is significantly exposed, holding dubious financial products known as "derivatives", worth 67 trillion euros, in 2015. This amount is similar to the GDP of the entire world and 20 times greater than the GDP of Germany. Any comparison with the situation of the bank Lehman Brothers in 2008 would not be irrelevant. Just when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, had available derivatives of only 31.5 trillion. The crisis of 2008 confirmed the concise definition of derivatives as proposed by the American tycoon Warren Buffet: "financial weapons of mass destruction."

While Angela Merkel sacrificed Greece to save Deutsche Bank and the other Franco-German banks, this time has no excuses. She has run out of scapegoats in case that the German banking monster will need another huge bailout to avoid collapse.

Yet, Merkel may not have to deal with the mess that she and her minister of finance have created. As they may lose in the oncoming German election, they will deliver the Deutsche Bank huge timebomb to the hands of the next government.

The third dangerous situation that may blow up eurozone, is the refueling of the Grexit discussion. It seems that Greece's creditors have stuck in a dead-end situation because they have absolutely nothing positive to exhibit concerning the Greek "program". Greece is sinking deeper in debt, unemployment remains in unprecedented high levels, and there are no signs of recovery in the close future.

The Greek society is literally exhausted from the brutal austerity imposed by the neoliberal priesthood and the possibility of Grexit starts to mature in the minds of Greeks. Creditors seem to ignore the danger of the situation and ask for more brutal measures, believing that the Greeks will "obey" forever. Yet, more and more Greeks start to find Grexit as a solution, not as a disaster, as they already experience the disaster inside the monetary prison of the common currency.

According to some recent information, a secret ECB study estimated that Grexit would cost more than 1.5 trillion euros! Greece's creditors play with fire and in the case of an uncontrolled Grexit, the financial Tsunami will make Brexit irrelevant.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Why the US rushed to propagate the 'naval mine' scenario to explain recent attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman

globinfo freexchange

The incident of the recent attack against two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman elevated the heat between the US and Iran. Naturally, the attack also produced some level of turmoil in the oil global market.

Trump's hostile attitude against Iran was clearly evident even before his election. His totally unjustifiable and completely incomprehensible action to kill the Iran nuclear deal, destroyed any remnants of US reliability. Consequently, even the US Western allies refused to follow this evidently counterproductive strategy.

Under these circumstances and given the endless history of US manufactured incidents used to justify the start of another war, most people rightfully thought that this has been just another false flag operation.

And it makes sense actually. Why the hell Iran would attempt to blow up its relations with Japan in the midst of Japanese PM Shinzo Abe visit in the country? Only the US empire would have reasons to do it in order to force one of its…

Όσοι περνάν των χώρα της απόγνωσης παθαίνουν αμνησία ...

globinfo freexchange
Δανειστήκαμε αυτή τη φράση από ένα παλιό κομμάτι της Ελληνικής ροκ μπάντας "Τρύπες", για να περιγράψουμε με λίγα λόγια αυτό που φαίνεται να έχει πάθει η Ελληνική κοινωνία. 
Πώς είναι δυνατόν μια ολόκληρη κοινωνία να έχει ξεχάσει ποιοι τη χρεοκόπησαν; Ποιοι έστησαν το άθλιο σύστημα των κρατικοδίαιτων 'ημέτερων' και της οικογενειοκρατίας; Ποιοι έσωσαν τις τράπεζες με πακτωλό δισεκατομμυρίων σε βάρος της μεσαίας τάξης; Ποιοι έκαναν τη μίζα και το ρουσφέτι επάγγελμα; Πώς είναι δυνατόν αυτή η κοινωνία να ετοιμάζεται να ξαναφέρει στην εξουσία ένα κομμάτι αυτού του άθλιου πολιτικού κατεστημένου, με την επιστροφή μάλιστα του αμετανόητα νεοφιλελεύθερου Κυριάκου Μητσοτάκη και της ομάδας του;  
Η απόγνωση που έφεραν εννέα χρόνια βάρβαρων νεοφιλελεύθερων πολιτικών και σκληρής λιτότητας και που ανάγκασε τη χώρα να διαβεί τον εφιαλτικό μονόδρομο της μόνιμης χρεοκοπίας, πρέπει να έπαιξε σημαντικό ρόλο. 
Διότι ως γνωστόν, η απελπισία λίγο απέχει από τ…

The 'Julian Assange' index: another evidence that Elizabeth Warren is establishment's last resort

 globinfo freexchange

We should be grateful to Julian Assange and WikiLeaks for uncovering the ruthless and ugly face of the establishment. For the exposure of the biggest war crimes by the US empire in the Iraq war. For the exposure of the dirty war by the DNC against Bernie Sanders, and many more.
But even now, being in this extremely hard situation because of the absolutely inhuman treatment by this imperialistic crypto-fascist regime, Assange remarkably becomes the cause that forces more masks to fall.

Therefore, the 'Julian Assange' index can even help us identify the real and the fake progressives.

As The Interceptreported:
The Justice Department filed 17 charges against WikiLeaks co-founder Julian Assange on Thursday, deploying the controversial Espionage Act as a cudgel against First Amendment protections and press freedom. It’s the first time the U.S. government has used the Espionage Act to prosecute a publisher, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists.

[..…

Brussels bureaufascists are ready to replace Alexis Tsipras with their most faithful puppet in Greece

globinfo freexchange
The latest European election in Greece was a real shock for the government. Alexis Tsipras and his party SYRIZA took the second place and suffered a heavy defeat with almost 10 points behind the right-wing New Democracy. Tsipras was forced to declare national elections on July 7th and it seems that blog's predictions are about to become true.

As we wrote already in 2016, right after the internal elections for the new leadership in New Democracy:
The result for the leadership of the main opposition party, New Democracy, in Greece after Sunday's elections, must had brought waves of relief to the Brussels-Berlin axis. Brussels bureaufascists and Berlin directorate have now the best "backup" alternative in case that Tsipras administration attempt to diverge from the catastrophic policies imposed by the European Financial Dictatorship (EFD).
The new leader of New Democracy, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, is probably the ideal alternative solution. The man that co…

Έρχεται ο νεοφιλελεύθερος "οδοστρωτήρας" Κούλης που θα ισοπεδώσει τους εργαζόμενους

globinfo freexchange
«Επταήμερο εργασίας. Όχι ο εκβιασμός που γίνεται από τους ελέγχους εδώ πέρα, όχι εξαήμερο, επταήμερο! Απαιτούμε να γίνει πιο εύκολο, πιο ευέλικτο το θέμα των 7 ημερών και όχι να επικρέμεται η σπάθη των προστίμων», απαίτησε ο "ευγενής" επιχειρηματίας από τον Κυριάκο Μητσοτάκη που επισκέφτηκε την Κω. 
Δηλαδή, το "αφεντικό" δεν θέλει να έχει κανένα έλεγχο πάνω από το κεφάλι του και να κάνει ότι γουστάρει με τους εργαζόμενους. Αν μπορεί δηλαδή να τους βάζει να δουλεύουν και δωδεκάωρα (όπως πέρασε με νόμο στην Αυστρία η συντηρητική δεξιά) και να τους δίνει ένα ξεροκόμματο, ίσα-ίσα για να μπορούν να δουλεύουν.  Θεωρεί τον έλεγχο, δηλαδή αν τηρείται με λίγα λόγια η εργασιακή νομοθεσία, "εκβιασμό". Καταλάβατε νοοτροπία; 
Προσέξτε το ύφος του: το "αφεντικό" με θράσος απαιτεί, χτυπώντας σχεδόν το χέρι στο τραπέζι, να μπορεί ουσιαστικά να εφαρμόζει συνθήκες σύγχρονης δουλείας, όχι μόνο χωρίς καμία επίπτωση, αλλά ούτε καν ενόχληση.  

The prosecution of Julian Assange is an attack on our Freedom of Speech

The Intercept
The Trump Department of Justice has openly declared war on the First Amendment. And the case they have chosen to pave the way for criminally prosecuting journalists and publishers is that of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange under the Espionage Act. It is the first time since the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution was enshrined in law, that the government is criminally charging a publisher for publishing truthful information.
This indictment centers around the exposure of war crimes committed by the forces of the most powerful nation on Earth. It is about publishing documents that laid bare the blackmail, the backroom deals, the threats, the lies of the U.S. government in nations across the world. It is retaliation against an organization that presented to the world video evidence of a U.S. helicopter gunship massacre on Iraqi civilians and two Reuters news journalists. 
This prosecution is revenge for publishing documents on the U.S. kill campaign in Iraq and Afgha…

Οι λούμπεν μικροαστοί είναι έτοιμοι να επιλέξουν τον δήμιο τους που αποτελεί και την καλύτερη εφεδρεία για τους γραφειοφασίστες των Βρυξελλών

του system failure
Το πρόσφατο αποτέλεσμα των ευρωεκλογών δείχνει ότι το νεοφιλελεύθερο ιερατείο Βρυξελλών/Βερολίνου θεωρεί ότι έφτασε η ώρα να αντικατασταθεί ο Αλέξης Τσίπρας με την καλύτερη εφεδρεία του: τον Κυριάκο Μητσοτάκη. 
Πράγματι, οι προβλέψεις φαίνεται να επαληθεύονται εντυπωσιακά. Όπως είχαμε αναφέρει σε προηγούμενο άρθρο ήδη από το 2016 και αμέσως μετά την εκλογή Μητσοτάκη στην ηγεσία της ΝΔ, τα αποτελέσματα των εκλογών στη ΝΔ λύνουν τα χέρια του άξονα Βρυξελλών-Βερολίνου. Οι γραφειοφασίστες των Βρυξελλών και το διευθυντήριο του Βερολίνου έχουν τώρα μια πρώτης τάξεως εφεδρεία σε περίπτωση που τα πράγματα "στραβώσουν" με την σημερινή κυβέρνηση.  
Ήδη, η κυβέρνηση ΣΥΡΙΖΑ έδωσε κάποια μικρά σημάδια ανυπακοής ενάντια στη λιτότητα που επιβάλλει το ιερατείο, ρέποντας 'επικίνδυνα' προς μια πιο φιλολαϊκή πολιτική. Δεν είναι τυχαίο φυσικά ότι τα πρώτα αυτά σημάδια άρχισαν να γίνονται ορατά μόλις η χώρα βγήκε από το πρόγραμμα επιτήρησης που επέβαλε η Τρό…

Arms industry lobby likely among the forces behind the unthinkable BDS banning in Germany

globinfo freexchange

Recently, the German parliament passed an unprecedented legislation through which the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions movement (BDS) is now considered illegal!

As Sharmini Peries of the Real News reported:

The German parliament (Bundestag), has just passed an unprecedented piece of legislation condemning the Boycott Divestment and Sanctions movement, known as BDS. They deemed BDS as anti-Semitic and illegal. This makes Germany the first and only country in the world to criminalize the BDS movement.
The legislation was passed at lightning speed in Germany. The bill itself was well kept secret until only two days before the vote. It was initially promoted by the far-right pro Israeli parties, both the neoliberal Party FDP and the racist anti-immigrant party AFD. But members of all German parties ended up supporting it, even from the far left.

Peries spoke with the Real News correspondent, Shir Hever, who gave impressive details about the peculiar circumstances un…

Microsoft’s ElectionGuard a Trojan Horse for a military-industrial takeover of US elections

“The fact that we are handing over the keys of American democracy to the military-industrial complex — it’s like giving the keys to the henhouse to a fox and saying, ‘here come in and take whatever you want.’ It’s obviously dangerous.” — Investigative journalist Yasha Levine
by Whitney Webb 
Part 4 - From mind control to vote control?
It’s worth briefly describing why DARPA’s role at Galois is of concern. This stems mainly from the fact that DARPA is currently developing Orwellian and nightmarish “Terminator” technologies — including efforts to implant chips into soldiers’ brains, replace most human soldiers with robot soldiers, and create killer “Terminator” robots — and autonomous artificial-intelligence targeting systems that will use social media to identify potential targets.
In 2015, Michael Goldblatt — then-director of the DARPA subdivision Defense Sciences Office (DSO), which oversees the “super soldier” program — told journalist Annie Jacobsen that he saw no difference betw…

Trump's top hawkish neocon gives signs that the US could possibly participate in a military coup against Jeremy Corbyn

globinfo freexchange

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the United Kingdom’s Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt held a joint press conference in London after meeting for talks in the UK capital.
Pompeo condemned what he described as the support of certain UK and US leaders for Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. "It is disgusting to see leaders, not only in the United Kingdom but in the United States as well, who continue to support the murderous dictator [Nicolas] Maduro," said Pompeo.

What's disgusting is that Pompeo has gone so far as even to launch indirect threats against US/UK leaders who refuse to align with the empire's typical regime change operations against legitimate governments.

It's obvious that these warnings are targeting progressive anti-war leaders like Tulsi Gabbard, Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sanders.

Pompeo depicts the anxiety of the empire, as it finds more and more difficult to make countries and leaders align behind US regime change efforts. …