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03 February, 2017

Trump, Brexit reinforce Germany's appetite to dominate Europe

by system failure

After the recent NATO 'invasion' in Poland, we saw the first German military presence (always in the context of NATO) in a former Baltic Soviet republic since WWII: “German tanks and troops began arriving in Lithuania on Tuesday, the first entry of the German military into the former Baltic Soviet republic since its occupation by the Nazis during the Second World War. The German deployment is to include 450 troops and some 200 vehicles, including 30 tanks. In all, the NATO alliance has committed to moving four battalions, roughly 3,000 to 4,000 troops, to within striking distance of Russia in northeastern Europe as part of a permanent “rotating” deployment.

Recall that, recentlyGerman Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned European Union leaders they cannot rely on the "eternal guarantee" of US support, as concerns continue to grow about incoming President Donald Trump's commitment to trans-Atlantic ties. Speaking to the press in Brussels as she received an honorary joint doctorate from Ghent and Louvain universities, Merkel said "traditional partners" could no longer be relied upon to "closely cooperate" with Europe on issues such as defense.

The decline of the US-German relations has been exposed initially with the NSA interceptions scandal, yet, progressively, the big picture came on surface, revealing a transatlantic economic war between banking and corporate giants.

Merkel's statements could be considered an official declaration of Germany's deeper desire to become an autonomous power that will dominate in the European continent. It is obvious that Germany (i.e., German capital), will seek to take advantage both from Brexit and the Trump presidency.

Brexit will give the chance to Germany to increase influence due to the change of power balance, especially now that France appears weak - crawling behind Berlin's austerity, sado-monetarism and neoliberal destruction. These conditions (created in the Greek experiment), are necessary to Germany in order to retain a model in favor of its surpluses. These could become the solid ground upon which Germany could build a strong, modern military machine.

Therefore, Merkel knows that the economic domination is not adequate for a country to become a major power. It is also important to have a strong military presence in its “sphere of influence”, or, its financial/debt colonies, if you prefer. The German military presence in Lithuania is a first step towards this direction as the Baltic countries have already become German "satellites" in the economic field.

That's why Merkel would not be probably very unhappy with Trump's statements about calling NATO an 'obsolete' alliance. Germany can use NATO as a pretext to put troops in eastern Europe, but they can stay permanently under a new European military alliance in the future.

Therefore, while Trump will be occupied with his efforts to 'lure' Russia in order to break its alliance with China, Germany may find the chance to build a third major pole between a possible refreshed Anglo-American axis and the Sino-Russian bloc, replacing the US hegemony in Europe.

However, many things could go wrong.

First of all, under today's multi-polar and quite complex/unstable global geopolitical environment, where even the biggest powers seek alliances to prevail, it is certain that Germany does not have the specific weight to build its own 'empire' alone. The absolute commitment of its European partners is vital.

Yet, it seems that Germany tries to do it the wrong way. This time, it is not using cruel military enforcement like in WWII, but brutal economic war. Germany used its economic power and control of the European Central Bank to impose unprecedented austerity, sado-monetarism and neoliberal destruction through silent financial coups in Ireland, Italy and Cyprus.

This way of imposition, provokes extremely negative responses throughout eurozone. Add to that the unprecedented refugee crisis and the unknown factor called Deutsche Bank that may blow up eurozone even earlier than the dead-end situation in Greece, and you have a perfect mixture of catastrophe that could put an early end to Germany's dreams, one more time.

Currently, the French political establishment follows Germany to the letter. That's because both the German and the French political establishment serve the big European capital through the neoliberal doctrine. It had become quite obvious especially when they sacrificed Greece to save the German and the French banks.

However, things are changing rapidly in Europe. It seems that the political parties, i.e. the Social Democrats and the Popular RIght, that dominated the European political scene for, at least the last forty years, are collapsing. Therefore, things can go wrong for Germany also with the potential rise of Marine Le Pen in power. Recall that, recently, Le Pen stated that she will take France out not only from NATO, but also from the EU.

Furthermore, under such circumstances, Germany would be also committed by some serious obligations. Under an extreme scenario, a possible military European alliance under the German hegemony, would be obliged to defend its colony Greece, for example, if Turkey would provoke a warm conflict.

1 comment:

  1. Remember, when Yugoslavia was falling apart the Germans hastily recognized Croatia and Slovenia. They are the last people who should be complaining because America supports Brexit.

    ReplyDelete