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Ελλάδα: Οι τράπεζες προκάλεσαν την κρίση

Το χρέος που απαιτούν να πληρώσει η Ελλάδα είναι επονείδιστο - Η μελέτη αυτή αποδεικνύει ότι η ελληνική κρίση που ξέσπασε το 2010 προήλθε από τον ιδιωτικό τραπεζικό τομέα. Δεν είναι αποτέλεσμα υπέρμετρων δημόσιων δαπανών. Το υποτιθέμενο πρόγραμμα διάσωσης της Ελλάδας σχεδιάστηκε για να υπηρετήσει τα συμφέροντα των ιδιωτών τραπεζιτών καθώς και των χωρών που κυριαρχούν στην ευρωζώνη. Η υιοθέτηση του ευρώ από την Ελλάδα έπαιξε καίριο ρόλο μεταξύ των παραγόντων που συνέβαλαν στην κρίση. Η ανάλυση που περιέχεται σε αυτό το κείμενο παρουσιάστηκε στην Αθήνα, την 6η Δεκεμβρίου 2016, κατά την συνάντηση της Ελληνικής Επιτροπής Αλήθειας Δημόσιου Χρέους.

Eric Toussaint

Μέρος 6ο - Βίαιη αρνητική μεταβολή της κατάστασης των τραπεζών το 2008-2009 ως συνέπεια των υπερβολικών ρίσκων που ανέλαβαν και της έκρηξης της φούσκας του δανεισμού που είχαν δημιουργήσει

Τον Σεπτέμβριο-Οκτώβριο του 2008, σε συνέχεια της πτώχευσης της Lehman Brothers στις ΗΠΑ και των άμεσων αποτελεσμάτων της στις τράπεζες της Δυτικής Ευρώπης (πτωχεύσεις τραπεζών σε Ιρλανδία, Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο, Ισλανδία, Βέλγιο, Γερμανία), οι τράπεζες δεν έχουν πια εμπιστοσύνη η μια στην άλλη και τα διατραπεζικά δάνεια στερεύουν πλήρως, φαινόμενο που αποκαλείται «credit crunch». Οι ελληνικές τράπεζες που εξαρτώνται σε σημαντικό βαθμό από αυτό το είδος χρηματοδότησης βρίσκονται σε κρίσιμη κατάσταση. Η τιμή των μετοχών τους καταρρέει στο δεύτερο μισό του 2008 για να σταθεροποιηθεί στο 20% του επιπέδου που είχε φθάσει στις αρχές 2007. Ταυτόχρονα, τα επιτόκια που πρέπει να καταβάλλουν για να χρηματοδοτηθούν αυξάνουν κατά 500 μονάδες βάσης, δηλαδή, κατά 5%.

Οι ελληνικές τράπεζες δεν τα καταφέρνουν παρά μόνο χάρη στο ρευστό που τίθεται στη διάθεσή τους από την Κεντρική Τράπεζα της Ελλάδας, στα πλαίσια της πολιτικής της ΕΚΤ η οποία χορηγούσε μαζικά ρευστότητα στις τράπεζες όλης της ευρωζώνης (πολιτική που ακολούθησε επίσης η Federal Reserve στις ΗΠΑ, η Τράπεζα της Αγγλίας καθώς και η Κεντρική Τράπεζα της Ελβετίας).

Στο παρακάτω γράφημα, μπορούμε να διαπιστώσουμε με σαφήνεια, ακολουθώντας την εξέλιξη της πράσινης γραμμής, ότι από τον Σεπτέμβριο του 2008, οι ελληνικές τράπεζες καταφεύγουν σε σημαντικά αυξημένο βαθμό στην χρηματοδότηση που τους παρέχει η Κεντρική Τράπεζα της Ελλάδας, στα πλαίσια του ευρωσυστήματος, με την σύμφωνη γνώμη της ΕΚΤ.

Γράφημα 7 – Εξέλιξη της χρηματοδότησης των ελληνικών τραπεζών από την Κεντρική Τράπεζα της Ελλάδας (Πράσινη γραμμή) και της κατοχής τίτλων του ελληνικού δημοσίου από τις ελληνικές τράπεζες (2007-2010) σε δις € (μπλε γραμμή)
Υπόμνημα: Μπλε γραμμή: Πιστώσεις των ελληνικών τραπεζών προς την κυβέρνηση.
Πράσινη γραμμή: Πιστώσεις της Κεντρικής Τράπεζας προς τις ελληνικές τράπεζες

Πρέπει να σημειώσουμε ότι αυτή η αλλαγή κύριων πηγών χρηματοδότησης δεν αποτελεί ελληνική εξαίρεση: αντίστοιχο φαινόμενο παρατηρήθηκε στην περισσότερες από τις χώρες της ευρωζώνης αλλά και εκτός αυτής. Οι κεντρικές τράπεζες έγιναν οι κύριες πηγές χρηματοδότησης των ιδιωτικών τραπεζών κατά τα έτη 2008 και 2009.

Τον Οκτώβρη του 2008, δεδομένης της κρίσης των ελληνικών τραπεζών, η ελληνική κυβέρνηση του Κώστα Καραμανλή πρέπει να ανακοινώσει ένα σχέδιο διάσωσής τους ύψους 28 δις €, εκ των οποίων 3,5 δις για μια πρώτη ανακεφαλαιοποίηση των τραπεζών, το δε υπόλοιπο συνίστατο σε εγγυήσεις που θα τους επέτρεπαν να συνεχίζουν να χρηματοδοτούνται από την Κεντρική τράπεζα. Στόχος ήταν επίσης να καθησυχαστούν οι καταθέτες για να αποφευχθεί ένα «bank run» (μαζικές αναλήψεις που οδηγούν στην τραπεζική πτώχευση).

Η πολιτική που εφάρμοσε ο Κώστας Καραμανλής δεν αποτελεί εξαίρεση. Τόσο στις ΗΠΑ όσο και στην Ευρώπη (είτε στην Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση είτε στην Ελβετία), οι κυβερνήσεις προχώρησαν σε προγράμματα μαζικών ενέσεων κεφαλαίων και χορήγησης εγγυήσεων που οδήγησαν παντού σε πολύ σημαντική αύξηση του δημοσίου χρέους χωρίς όμως να εξυγιανθεί ο τραπεζικός τομέας σε βάθος χρόνου.

Οι γαλλικές, γερμανικές, βρετανικές, βελγικές, ολλανδικές, ελβετικές και βορειο-αμερικανικές τράπεζες αποτέλεσαν αντικείμενο μαζικής δημόσιας βοήθειας το 2008-2009, που συνεχίστηκε τα επόμενα χρόνια. Μεταξύ της 1ης Οκτωβρίου 2008 και της 1ης Οκτωβρίου 2012, το ποσό της βοήθειας που εγκρίθηκε από την Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή ανέρχεται στο αστρονομικό ποσό των 5.058,9 δις ευρώ, δηλαδή, 40,3% του ΑΕΠ της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης. Από την πλευρά της, η αμερικανική Ομοσπονδιακή Τράπεζα χορήγησε στις τράπεζες (αμερικανικές αλλά και ξένες) βοήθεια που ανήλθε στα 29.614,4 δις δολάρια, σύμφωνα με τις εκτιμήσεις του καθηγητή James Felkerson.

Το 2008, οι ελληνικές τράπεζες, όπως και οι ισπανικές, πορτογαλικές και κυπριακές ομόλογές τους, δεν θεωρούνταν ως οι πλέον απειλούμενες διότι, σε αντίθεση με τις αμερικανικές τράπεζες και εκείνες των πιο ανεπτυγμένων χωρών της Ευρώπης που αναφέραμε παραπάνω (Γερμανία, Γαλλία, Μπενελούξ, …), δεν είχαν επενδύσει μαζικά στα δομημένα προϊόντα που είχαν κλονίσει συθέμελα όλο το τραπεζικό σύστημα των ΗΠΑ και της βορειοδυτικής Ευρώπης.

Στην πραγματικότητα όμως, οι τράπεζες των χωρών της περιφέρειας της ευρωζώνης βρίσκονταν και εκείνες στην άκρη του γκρεμού και δεν διέθεταν Κράτη τόσο ισχυρά όσο εκείνα της Βόρειας Ευρώπης και των ΗΠΑ που θα μπορούσαν να τις βοηθήσουν επαρκώς.

Πηγή και παραπομπές:


[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13]

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