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17 July, 2016

Failed coup in Turkey: a tactical move by Erdoğan?

As the Daesh terrorists are losing ground in Syria-Iraq, and the Kurds appear to take the first steps for autonomy starting from Northern Syria, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, appeared to be more and more isolated.

Erdoğan was forced to make a turn of 180 degrees and tried to re-approach Russia and Israel, in a first attempt to restore relations, escape the isolation. However, it appears that this was not enough, as the Turkish President made too many clumsy moves inside and outside Turkey in his agony to stay in power, that made things even worse.

Motivated by his endless thirst to expand the Turkish sphere of influence in the Middle East and deal quickly with the Kurdish, he eventually ended to be in a defence position against nearly all the international players.

As was pointed in previous articlethere is always a possibility that Russians and Americans have already agreed to re-build the map of the Middle East, which will include a sovereign Kurdish state. This explains Erdogan's anxiety who acts under pressure and makes things worse, as he probably understands that he has been left out of the game.

There are many who believe already that the recent attempt for military coup in Turkey was staged by Erdoğan himself to escape from a very difficult position. We can't say of course if this is true, but it would be useful to examine briefly how this event could help him.

1st: It would help him to eliminate any remnants of his enemies inside the military forces and elsewhere.

2nd: He managed to pass the message that he completely controls the game inside Turkey, as the people and the police forces clearly supported him.

3rd: Having exhibited strength through the Turkish people, he can now bargain with the US.

Using Fethullah Gülen as pretext who has found protection in US soil, although he clearly denied any relation with the coup attempt, Erdoğan counterattacked through a quick move to take control of the Incirlik airbase, which is of crucial importance for the US operations in Middle East.

Although this is an extremely risky move, Erdoğan hopes that he can take much more from the US ally, through a better position. In case that indeed the Russians and the Americans have already agreed to re-build the map of the Middle East, with a Kurdish state, he probably hopes to postpone these plans and buy some time. However, it shows also that he is desperate and that he was left with very few cards in his hands.

How this critical situation will end, nobody can tell ...

1 comment:

  1. Anonymous19/7/16 23:03

    An entirely absurd claim! Too ridiculous to be considered anything else but a product of deep-prejudice...