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Ο Πούτιν μυρίστηκε τη Δυτική παγίδα;


Η απόφαση του Πούτιν φαίνεται ότι έρχεται αρκετά αιφνιδιαστικά, καθώς δεν είναι βέβαιο ότι οι δυνάμεις των τζιχαντιστών έχουν αποδυναμωθεί σε όλα τα μέτωπα. Από το ΑΠΕ-ΜΠΕ :

Ο πρόεδρος της Ρωσίας Βλαντίμιρ Πούτιν ανακοίνωσε ότι έδωσε εντολή στην ηγεσία των ενόπλων δυνάμεων για την έναρξη της αποχώρησης του κύριου τμήματος των ρωσικών στρατιωτικών δυνάμεων από τη Συρία λέγοντας ότι η ρωσική στρατιωτική επέμβαση πέτυχε σε μεγάλο βαθμό τους στόχους της.

Κατά τη διάρκεια συνάντησης στο Κρεμλίνο με τους υπουργούς Αμυνας και Εσωτερικών της Ρωσίας, ο Πούτιν δήλωσε ότι η απόσυρση των ρωσικών δυνάμεων θα αρχίσει από αύριο προσθέτοντας ότι έδωσε επίσης εντολή για την ενίσχυση του ρόλου της Μόσχας στην ειρηνευτική διαδικασία για τον τερματισμό του πολέμου στη Συρία.

Ο εκπρόσωπος του του Κρεμλίνου Ντμίτρι Πεσκόφν δήλωσε ότι ο Πούτιν είχε τηλεφωνική συνομιλία με τον πρόεδρο της Συρίας Μπασάρ αλ Ασαντ για να τον ενημερώσει για τη ρωσική απόφαση.

Ίσως ο Πούτιν να μυρίστηκε τη Δυτική παγίδα και προσπαθεί να απεμπλακεί από το χάος της Μέσης Ανατολής πριν να είναι πολύ αργά: Όπως είχαμε αναφέρει σε προηγούμενο άρθρο:

... η εμπλοκή της Ρωσίας στο μέτωπο της Μέσης Ανατολής, αποτελεί πιθανόν ένα σημαντικό κομμάτι της αλλαγής στρατηγικής της Ουάσιγκτον για την ώρα και έχει δύο βασικούς στόχους:

Ο πρώτος στόχος είναι να μπορέσουν οι ΗΠΑ να αποσυρθούν σταδιακά από το Συριακό χάος, αποφεύγοντας άλλον έναν ατέλειωτο πόλεμο φθοράς. Ταυτόχρονα, η Ουάσιγκτον θα εξαπολύσει ένα νέο πόλεμο προπαγάνδας ώστε να ρίξει το φταίξιμο για το χάος στον Πούτιν και τους συμμάχους του. Η Ουάσιγκτον ελπίζει επίσης να αποκαταστήσει, ως ένα βαθμό, τις σχέσεις με τους Ευρωπαίους συμμάχους, που φαίνονται δυσαρεστημένοι με την Αμερικανική πολιτική η οποία δημιούργησε το μεγάλο προσφυγικό πρόβλημα. Ένα πρόβλημα που η Ευρώπη φάνηκε απροετοίμαστη να αντιμετωπίσει. Ο Πούτιν θα θεωρηθεί υπεύθυνος για τα νέα κύματα προσφύγων.

[...]

Ο δεύτερος στόχος, είναι να σύρουν τη Ρωσία σε αυτό που οι ΗΠΑ θέλουν να αποφύγουν: έναν ατέλειωτο πόλεμο φθοράς. Ο Πούτιν μπορεί να παγιδευτεί σε μια κατάσταση παρόμοια με αυτή των Σοβιετικών στο Αφγανιστάν, αλλά μάλλον όχι για τόσο μακρά περίοδο. Αυτό που απέτυχαν να κάνουν οι ΗΠΑ και οι σύμμαχοί τους στην Ουκρανία, μπορεί να το πετύχουν τώρα στη Συρία. Οι ΗΠΑ θα συνεχίσουν ενδεχομένως να εξοπλίζουν μαχητές στη Συρία, κρατώντας τον Πούτιν απασχολημένο τουλάχιστον μέχρι τις Αμερικανικές εκλογές του 2016. Με μια περισσότερο πρόθυμη μαριονέτα από τον Ομπάμα, που θα ακολουθήσει πιστά την ατζέντα των νεοσυντηρητικών, η Ουάσιγκτον ίσως σχεδιάζει να ανοίξει ένα νέο μέτωπο στα Ρωσικά σύνορα.

[...]

Όσο υπάρχουν φανατικοί που είναι αποφασισμένοι να σκοτωθούν σε επιθέσεις αυτοκτονίας, κανένας στρατός και καμία τακτική δεν θα μπορέσουν ποτέ να εξαλείψουν το χάος. Και ακόμα χειρότερα, τέτοιες ενέργειες σχεδιάζονται ήδη μακριά από τις εμπόλεμες ζώνες, σκοτώνοντας περισσότερους ανθρώπους, όπως πρόσφατα στο μακελειό της βομβιστικής επίθεσης στην Άγκυρα. Το γεγονός αυτό, δείχνει ότι η Ουάσιγκτον μπορεί να έχει και έναν τρίτο στόχο μέσα από την άμεση εμπλοκή της Ρωσίας στο Συριακό μέτωπο: να 'μετατοπίσει' τέτοιου είδους επιθέσεις από Δυτικούς στόχους μέσα στη Ρωσική επικράτεια και ειδικά σε περιοχές 'υψηλού κινδύνου' για τους Ρώσους, όπως ο Καύκασος. Έτσι ο Πούτιν θα έχει άλλο ένα μεγάλο πρόβλημα να αντιμετωπίσει, πέρα από ένα πιθανό αδιέξοδο στη Συρία, μια ακόμα 'έγχρωμη επανάσταση' στα Ρωσικά σύνορα και ένα νέο γύρο οικονομικών κυρώσεων κατά της Ρωσίας.


Ενδεχομένως ο Ρώσος πρόεδρος να περίμενε πρώτα την έναρξη των διαπραγματεύσεων για να "ανιχνεύσει" τις πραγματικές προθέσεις των Δυτικών και της φερόμενης ως Συριακής αντιπολίτευσης στη Συρία. Απ'ότι φαίνεται, αυτό που τους ενδιέφερε δεν ήταν μια πραγματική εκεχειρία που θα επιχειρούσε να βάλει τέλος στο μαρτύριο της Συρίας, αλλά ένας τρόπος για να δώσουν χρόνο στους αντικαθεστωτικούς να ανασυντάξουν δυνάμεις.

Αν ισχύει κάτι τέτοιο, τότε πρόκειται για μια κίνηση αιφνιδιασμού του Πούτιν ενάντια στα σχέδια των Δυτικών να τον εγκλωβίσουν σε έναν αδιέξοδο πόλεμο και να ανοίξουν νέα μέτωπα με στόχο να τον φθείρουν και να τον ανατρέψουν.

Υπάρχει βέβαια και το ενδεχόμενο Ρώσοι και Αμερικανοί να έχουν συμφωνήσει στον επανασχεδιασμό του χάρτη της Μέσης Ανατολής, που θα συμπεριλαμβάνει αυτόνομο Κουρδικό κράτος, κάτι που εξηγεί και τον μεγάλο εκνευρισμό του Ερντογάν, καθώς φαίνεται ότι θέλουν να τον βγάλουν τελείως από το παιχνίδι.

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