Skip to main content

Signals of an unsustainable future coming from Davos

Hyper-automation impact on unemployment rise - further shrinking of the middle class - creation of a working elite - substitution of saturated Western consumers with other emerging consumer tanks


The general conclusions from the report The Future of Jobs, of the 2016 World Economic Forum, leave little room for optimistic thoughts about the future. They reflect what already most of us have realized: that the combination of the current socio-economic model with the rapid hyper-automation of production, lead to further imbalance and inequality in favor of the very few.

As Stephen Hawking mentioned recently: “If machines produce everything we need, the outcome will depend on how things are distributed. Everyone can enjoy a life of luxurious leisure if the machine-produced wealth is shared, or most people can end up miserably poor if the machine-owners successfully lobby against wealth redistribution. So far, the trend seems to be toward the second option, with technology driving ever-increasing inequality.”

Some key points from the study:

Recent discussions about the employment impact of disruptive change have often been polarized between those who foresee limitless opportunities in newly emerging job categories and prospects that improve workers’ productivity and liberate them from routine work, and those that foresee massive labour substitution and displacement of jobs. Academics, chief executives and labour leaders hold strong and diverse views on the debate, as do policymakers. It is clear from our data that while forecasts vary by industry and region, momentous change is underway and that, ultimately, it is our actions today that will determine whether that change mainly results in massive displacement of workers or the emergence of new opportunities. Without urgent and targeted action today to manage the near-term transition and build a workforce with futureproof skills, governments will have to cope with ever-growing unemployment and inequality, and businesses with a shrinking consumer base.

Overall, our respondents seem to take a negative view regarding the upcoming employment impact of artificial intelligence, although not on a scale that would lead to widespread societal upheaval—at least up until the year 2020. By contrast, further unpacking the bundle of technological drivers of change in the mould of the Fourth Industrial Revolution yields a rather more optimistic picture regarding the job creation potential of technologies such as Big Data analytics, mobile internet, the Internet of Things and robotics. [...] Our respondents expect strong employment growth across the Architecture and Engineering and Computer and Mathematical job families, a moderate decline in Manufacturing and Production roles and a significant decline in Office and Administrative roles. [...] Conversely, 3D printing, resource-efficient sustainable production and robotics are all seen as strong drivers of employment growth in the Architecture and Engineering job family, in light of a continued and fast-growing need for skilled technicians and specialists to create and manage advanced and automated production systems. This is expected to lead to a transformation of manufacturing into a highly sophisticated sector where high-skilled engineers are in strong demand to make the industrial Internet of Things a reality.

The expected global decline in total Manufacturing and Production roles is driven by labour-substituting technologies such as additive manufacturing and 3D printing as much as by more resource-efficient sustainable product use, lower demand growth in ageing societies and threats to global supply chains due to geopolitical volatility. Some cautious optimism is warranted due to increased manufacturing demand for advanced materials and comparatively favourable expectations around robotics, pointing to the latter’s potential for labour-complementing productivity enhancement rather than pure job replacement.

The study estimates that there will be no “widespread societal upheaval—at least up until the year 2020”, due to the takeover of jobs by artificial intelligence, but is this realy a reason not to worry seriously? Think about it: 2020 is only four years from now! Say, at the end of the new US presidency.

Secondly, the study actually confirms the trend for a limited working elite between the top 1% (or less) and the bottom 99%. The 99% (or more), which will be equalized in poverty due to the gradual elimination of the middle class. This is expected to have a major impact on the socio-economic stability, even of the most advanced societies.

As already mentioned in previous article: “In the middle of the pyramid, a restructured class will serve and secure the domination of the top. Corporate executives, big journalists, scientific elites, suppression forces. It is characteristic that academic research is directed on the basis of the profits of big corporations. Funding is directed increasingly to practical applications in areas that can bring huge profits, like for example, the higher automatization of production and therefore, the profit increase through the restriction of jobs. The base of the pyramid will be consisted by the majority of workers in global level, with restricted wages, zero labor rights, and nearly zero opportunities for activities other than consumption.” [fa.ev/a-more-simple-model-in-favor]

However, by far the biggest expected drivers of employment creation are demographic and socio-economic in nature; in particular, the opportunities offered by young demographics and rising middle classes in emerging markets and the rising economic power and aspirations of women. [...] The Consumer industry is likewise reducing its Manufacturing and Production roles but anticipates at least stable overall demand for Sales and Related jobs, as rising middle classes in emerging markets, changing consumer values and, in particular, the rising economic power of women, are significant drivers of job growth in the sector.

As also mentioned: “The consumption-saturated and aging West, cannot longer contribute to the rise of profits of the global economic elite and therefore, through the economic crisis, the middle class is systematically eliminated so that its consuming power to be "aligned" with that of the majority of the huge populations of developing countries.” [fa.ev/a-more-simple-model-in-favor]

There is a huge potential of consumers due to unprecedented human population. Once wages will further rise in China-South East Asia, to be aligned with the shrinking Western wages, there will be plenty of consumers to buy more products. However, this is probably only a transition phase. It's not a matter of money, they can print as much as they want. It's a matter of power and control. Once the elites reach the point to control all the resources and the means of production, the model will change from capitalism to global feudalism.

Where it is mentioned, the artificial intelligence and machine learning driver is expected to lead to negative employment outcomes in job families such as Education and Training, Legal and Business and Financial Operations. However, it appears our respondents do not believe that these technologies will have advanced significantly enough by the year 2020 to have a more widespread impact on global employment levels. [...] current trends could lead to a net employment impact of more than 5.1 million jobs lost to disruptive labour market changes over the period 2015–2020, with a total loss of 7.1 million jobs — two thirds of which are concentrated in the Office and Administrative job family — and a total gain of 2 million jobs, in several smaller job families.

Despite that the mixture of all above is quite explosive, there is no intention by the governments and forces of the market to change the current model. On the contrary, there is a tension for further privatization of public property and businesses, and further deregulation of the market in every level. Which means that the only way for the elites to control the growing instability of this system, is by absolute suppression:

Having secured the new labor force through fully automated machines, what has left for the dominant elite now, is to take all the resources. Big corporations are grabbing huge cultivable areas especially in the developing countries in order to control food production. [...] We see a rise of private armies that act in various battlefields, like in Ukraine, exactly because in the absence of the nation-states and the national armies, someone has to protect the natural resources and the new means of production for the dominant elite. But when the arms industry will fully automate the new weapons, private armies will only serve as assistance to fully automated war machines. We already see the test fields of the weapons of future˙ the drones in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere. It's not accidental that the arms industries demonstrate new weapons designed to be used inside urban areas for suppression of potential riots. There will be no "outside enemy" in the future. The threat for the dominant system will come from the interior, the big urban centers. Soldier-robots will protect worker-robots and resources.” [fa.ev/the-dominant-elite-ready-to-break.html]

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

WikiLeaks paper reveals US empire was becoming anxious about Venezuela adopting euro and directing exports to China

The WIKILEAKS Public Library of US Diplomacy (PlusD)holds the world's largest searchable collection of United States confidential, or formerly confidential, diplomatic communications. As of April 8, 2013 it holds 2 million records comprising approximately 1 billion words. The collection covers US involvements in, and diplomatic or intelligence reporting on, every country on earth. It is the single most significant body of geopolitical material ever published. The PlusD collection, built and curated by WikiLeaks, is updated from a variety of sources, including leaks, documents released under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) and documents released by the US State Department systematic declassification review.
globinfo freexchange
A cable from March, 2008 was highlighting US concerns about the fact that the Venezuelan state oil company, PDVSA, was about to adopt euro currency for some, or even all of its oil sales.
It appears that the cable source was the US embassy in Caracas and…

Russiagate collapse shows CIA black propaganda loops are obsolete and ineffective

globinfo freexchange
In his documentary The Power Of Nightmares, Adam Curtis presents the case of William Casey, head of the CIA under Reagan administration.
As has been described previously, to persuade the President, the neoconservatives set out to prove that the Soviet threat was far greater than anyone. They would demonstrate that the majority of terrorism and revolutionary movements around the world, were actually part of a secret network, coordinated by Moscow to take over the world.
The main proponent of this theory was a leading neoconservative who was the special adviser to the Secretary of State. His name was Michael Ledeen and he had been influenced by a best-selling book called "The Terror Network". It alleged that terrorism was not the fragmented phenomenon that it appeared to be. In reality, all terrorist groups, from the PLO to the Baader-Meinhof Group in Germany and the provisional IRA, all of them, were a part of coordinated strategy of terror run by the Soviet…

Arrest of Julian Assange: the last remaining leaf of the fascist neoliberal regime drops - we are now at war

globinfo freexchange
What other proof would you need to convince yourself that we already live under a global-scale fascist regime whose headquarters are located in the US evil empire?
This is a war against real journalism. It is a direct threat against all the independent media with real journalists who expose the war crimes of the empire and its allies. After this, expect an ongoing, brutal hunt against every real journalist who will attempt to report the truth, contrary the corporate PR parrots of the mainstream media - the golden operatives of the establishment, who faithfully stick to the script.
The utter joke of 'anti-establishment' Donald Trump collapsed from his first day in the US presidency, but now, its repulsive ugliness has been revealed gloriously. While Donnie was actually praising WikiLeaks before his election, he now said that "I know nothing about Wikileaks. It's not my thing".

"I know nothing about Wikileaks. It's not my thing" says …

A message for the worst liberal establishment ever: don't you dare harm Julian Assange

by system failure
The neoliberal clowns of the Western mainstream media increasingly shed crocodile tears about what they consider 'fake news' and the rise of the far right.
The hypocrisy and absurdity of the whole thing will make you laugh loud. Because these are the PR agents of the corporations behind the mainstream media who brought us Trump and the far right.
These are the cheerleaders of endless wars, and in fact, the only time they supported Trump was when he bombed Syria.
This is the ugly face of the establishment that pretends to be the gatekeeper of 'real news', while everyone else is 'fake news'. It doesn't matter if they work 24 hours a day to brainwash you with BS neoliberal and pro-war propaganda. You know, just to maintain this awful status in favor of their super-wealthy bosses.
It's not new. They did it for decades and it worked. People back then were like blind rats whose sole information was coming from the mainstream media. There were n…

The ruthless neo-colonialists of 21st century

by system failure
The start of current decade revealed the most ruthless face of a global neo-colonialism. From Syria and Libya to Europe and Latin America, the old colonial powers of the West tried to rebound against an oncoming rival bloc led by Russia and China, which starts to threaten their global domination.
Inside a multi-polar, complex terrain of geopolitical games, the big players start to abandon the old-fashioned, inefficient direct wars. They use today other, various methods like brutal proxy wars, economic wars, financial and constitutional coups, provocative operations, 'color revolutions', etc. In this highly complex and unstable situation, when even traditional allies turn against each other as the global balances change rapidly, the forces unleashed are absolutely destructive. Inevitably, the results are more than evident.
Proxy Wars - Syria/Libya
After the US invasion in Iraq, the gates of hell had opened in the Middle East. Obama continued the Bush legacy of US …

Tulsi Gabbard bravely defends Julian Assange on a US deep state platform

Here is another proof that she, or Jill Stein, should be the next US president if we want to escape from the fascist neocon/neoliberal regime - sorry Bernie, but your silence is very disturbing
globinfo freexchange
Many progressives feel extremely disappointed for the fact that the only 2020 Democrat progressive candidate who clearly defended one of the few remaining real journalists against the neocon/neoliberal fascist regime, is Tulsi Gabbard.
We still hope that Bernie Sanders will eventually take a clear position in favor of Julian Assange.
Nevertheless, in dark times like the one we are experiencing, things become more clear. We can see who is the one that will defend bravely the interests of the people against the totalitarian complex of Wall Street, corporate cabal and US deep state.
Tulsi Gabbard, and of course Jill Stein, are the best options right now for the 2020 US presidency, if we really want to see a radical change for the benefit of the American people and the world.

Arres…

Bernie Sanders has just put the Wall Street/corporate lobbyists and their DNC proxies into panic mode - expect an all-out war

globinfo freexchange
Bernie Sanders campaign announced something extraordinary for the US political standards. It has raised $18.2 million from just under 900,000 individual donations since launching 41 days ago!
As commondreamsreported:
Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign announced Tuesday that it raised $18.2 million from just under 900,000 individual donations since launching 41 days ago.
Sanders' first quarter haul tops all other 2020 Democratic candidates who have reported their fundraising totals. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) raised $12 million in the first quarter, and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg raised $7 million.
Faiz Shakir, Sanders' campaign manager, said during a press call that 88 percent of the donations were $200 or less, and the average donation was $20.
The profession with the most donors to Sanders' campaign was teachers, according to Shakir.
In total, 525,000 individuals donated to Sanders' campaig…

Assange’s arrest will massively backfire – further expose ‘Democratic West’ as harbingers of global police-state

by Don DeBar
The arrest of Wikileak’s Julian Assange will, in the long term, do more to expose the real nature of the so-called democratic West than 100 document dumps could ever do.
It has exposed the following:
Freedom of the press is non-existent in the US and EU. Should one publish materials exposing criminal activity by the powerful, that publisher – not the powerful criminal who has been exposed – will be criminally prosecuted.
The idea of an independent judiciary is farcical – the on-again/off-again nature of the charges in the Swedish courts, as well as the Torqmada-esque secret proceedings in the US which are certainly driving them, show that prosecutions can target and be controlled across borders to exact political vengeance.
Elections in the west are a farce, and the US meddles in these in the same way Kasparov ‘meddles’ with a chess board.
Lenin Moreno was elected to continue the program of his predecessor – and primary supporter before the election – former president of Ecuad…

US military attack on Venezuela mulled by top Trump advisors and Latin American officials at private DC meeting

Away from the public eye, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank hosted a top-level, off-the-record meeting to explore US military options against Venezuela.
by Max Blumenthal
Part 1
The Washington, DC-based think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) hosted a private roundtable on April 10 called “Assessing the Use of Military Force in Venezuela.” A list of attendees was provided to The Grayzone and two participants confirmed the meeting took place. They refused to offer any further detail, however.
Among the roughly 40 figures invited to the off-the-record event to discuss potential US military action against Caracas were some of the most influential advisors on President Donald Trump’s Venezuela policy. They included current and former State Department, National Intelligence Council, and National Security Council officials, along with Admiral Kurt Tidd, who was until recently the commander of US SOUTHCOM.
Senior officials from the C…

Juan Guaido confesses being behind the sabotage of Venezuela’s electric system

Translated from the Spanish by Global Research
A confession from [America’s] puppet pointing to evidence,” said journalist Gustavo Villapol Wednesday, noting that the deputy of the National Assembly in contempt Juan Guaidó confessed to be behind the attacks perpetrated against the National Electric Service (SEN) that have affected the Venezuelan people since last March 7.
The gentleman, Deputy Guaidó, has told the world that they are behind this devious and terrorist attack against the Electric System,” he said during an interview on the Punto de Encuentro program broadcast by Venezolana de Televisión.
[These are the quotations from Guaido’s statements at the National Assembly, video below 13′ 11″ – 14′ 09″, GR editor]
And I repeat, the cessation of darkness will definitely come with the cessation of usurpation,” culminates the self-proclaimed Juan Guaidó (VTV Fotogram)
There will be no solution to the electrical problem, there will be no water to the houses much less domestic gas”…