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Το Νταβός προβλέπει: Οι πλούσιοι θα γίνουν πλουσιότεροι

Οι πλούσιοι θα μεγεθύνουν τον πλούτο τους και η εισοδηματική ανισότητα θα αυξηθεί, λόγω της εισαγωγής νέων τεχνολογιών. Αυτό είναι ένα από τα κύρια πορίσματα που θα αναφερθούν στο φετινό Παγκόσμιο Οικονομικό Φόρουμ στο Νταβός, στις 20-23 Ιανουαρίου.

του Μιχάλη Γιαννεσκή

Ένα από τα κύρια θέματα του Φόρουμ είναι «Η 4η Βιομηχανική Επανάσταση», που αφορά τις τεχνολογικές εξελίξεις στους τομείς της τεχνητής νοημοσύνης, του αυτοματισμού της παραγωγής, και της περισυλλογής και χρησιμοποίησης γιγαντιαίων όγκων δεδομένων. Μια επανάσταση που, σύμφωνα με τη σχετική έκθεση της ελβετικής τράπεζας UBS για το φετινό Φόρουμ, θα ευεργετήσει τις ανεπτυγμένες χώρες και κυρίως τις ΗΠΑ και θα αυξάνει την ανισότητα παγκοσμίως.

Η τεχνολογική επανάσταση θα επηρεάσει αρνητικά κυρίως τις αναδυόμενες οικονομίες και όσους απασχολούνται σε τομείς που απαιτούν δεξιότητες χαμηλού ή μέσου επιπέδου. Όμως ακόμα και θέσεις εργασίας που απαιτούν δεξιότητες υψηλού επιπέδου απειλούνται, λόγω της συνεχώς αναπτυσσόμενης τεχνολογίας αυτοματισμού και ρομπότ.

Η ανισότητα αναμένεται να αυξηθεί και στις κοινωνίες της Δύσης. Οι λιγότερο εξειδικευμένοι σε αυτές τις κοινωνίες, κυρίως οι πτωχότεροι και οι γηραιότεροι, θα παραγκωνιστούν από την αύξηση της αυτοματοποίησης και την εισαγωγή νέων τεχνολογιών, σύμφωνα με τις προβλέψεις των «σοφών» του Νταβός. Εξάλλου ερευνητές του Πανεπιστημίου της Οξφόρδης υπολόγισαν πέρυσι ότι περίπου οι μισοί εργάτες στις ΗΠΑ και το ένα τρίτο των εργατών στη Βρετανία θα αντικατασταθούν από αυτοματοποιημένα συστήματα μέσα στα επόμενα 20 χρόνια.

Η UBS υπολογίζει στην έκθεσή της ποια κράτη θα κερδίσουν και ποια θα χάσουν από τις οικονομικές επιπτώσεις των τεχνολογικών εξελίξεων. Στα 45 κράτη που αναφέρονται, τις 5 πιο προνομιακές θέσεις κατέχουν η Ελβετία, η Σιγκαπούρη, η Ολλανδία, οι ΗΠΑ και η Βρετανία, ενώ η Γερμανία βρίσκεται στη 13η θέση και η Ελλάδα στη 36η.

Οι «σοφοί» του Φόρουμ διατύπωναν τις προβλέψεις τους στις 20 Ιανουαρίου ενόσω οι αγορές ανά τον κόσμο έπεφταν κατά 3-4%. Μια εύλογη ερώτηση που προκύπτει είναι εφόσον οι εν λόγω σοφοί της διεθνούς οικονομίας δεν μπορούν να προβλέψουν την παρούσα οικονομική κατάσταση, πώς μπορούν να προβλέψουν το μέλλον;

Όταν η βασίλισσα της Βρετανίας Ελισάβετ ερώτησε τους οικονομολόγους στο London School of Economics αμέσως μετά την κρίση του 2008 «Γιατί δεν προβλέψατε την πιστωτική κρίση;» δεν έλαβε απάντηση. Το 2012, τέσσερα χρόνια αργότερα, ένας υπάλληλος της Τράπεζας της Αγγλίας απάντησε στην ερώτησή της, λέγοντας της ότι οι κρίσεις είναι απρόβλεπτες, σαν τους σεισμούς και τις επιδημίες γρίπης, και ότι οι τραπεζίτες πίστευαν τότε (το 2008) ότι οι αγορές δεν είχαν ανάγκη ελέγχου.

Βέβαια κάτι σημαντικό έχει αλλάξει από το 2008: οι πολλαπλές «εκ των έσω» προβλέψεις από την Διεθνή Τράπεζα, τη Royal Bank of Scotland και τη J. P. Morgan, μέχρι και τον George Soros, για ένα επερχόμενο κραχ των αγορών. Όμως εφόσον τα πορίσματα του Νταβός που προαναφέρθηκαν προμηνύουν τη μεγέθυνση του πλούτου της οικονομικής ολιγαρχίας, δεν πρέπει να αναμένεται καμία ειλικρινής προσπάθεια αποφυγής μιας νέας κρίσης ή διόρθωσης της σαθρότητας της διεθνούς χρηματοπιστωτικής οικονομίας. Το κόστος της κρίσης του 2008 το επωμίστηκαν οι φορολογούμενοι, οι οποίοι μπορούν να κληθούν ανά πάσα στιγμή, να πληρώσουν τα σπασμένα μιας νέας κρίσης.

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