Skip to main content

Scenarios for the next day of the snap elections in Greece

by system failure

Although SYRIZA retreat to the European Financial Dictatorship (EFD) and the subsequent split of the Leftist party, leaves little room for someone to make safe predictions for the result of Sunday's snap elections in Greece, it would be worth to make an attempt to predict the next day through some possible scenarios.

Briefly:

Scenario 1 : SYRIZA takes the first place and Independent Greeks manage to enter the new parliament. In case that they gather the adequate number of MPs, they will form a coalition government. This would be actually the continuing of previous coalition. In that case, Greece's creditors will take for granted that the Greek people accept the 3rd catastrophic memorandum which was signed by Tsipras and they will force the new government to imply every detail under the tight control of EFD's mechanisms.

Scenario 2 : SYRIZA takes the first place, but Independent Greeks do not gather the necessary percentage to enter the new parliament. Berlin and Brussels bureaufascists will be happier in such a case because this will be the most suitable situation to see things progressing according to their plans. It will be a good chance to finish what they have started, forcing SYRIZA to cooperate with the neoliberal parties PASOK and Potami (River) and therefore, implement every last detail of the cruel neoliberal experiment in Greece. After Greece's destruction they can continue to the whole eurozone. Although PASOK and Potami are in essence neoliberal parties, they are self-determined as Center-Left and this is necessary for this possible coalition government (SYRIZA-PASOK-Potami) to be presented to the public as "progressive".

Scenario 3 : This will be an alternative to scenario 2 in case that SYRIZA, PASOK and Potami will not manage to gather the necessary seats to form coalition. New Democracy will have to join them under a wider coalition, to implement the third memorandum deal. This would not be such a preferable situation for the Brussels-Berlin axis, as it would be probably unstable. There are still remnants inside SYRIZA which stand far from the moderate core of the party, feeling closer to the radical Left. These have certainly huge ideological differences with the far-Right part of New Democracy. They may all have been bound to the implementation of the third memorandum, but an "accident" inside this probable government-zombie (as himself Alexis Tsipras characterized it recently), should not be considered impossible.

Scenario 4 : Popular Unity, the new party that was formed after the split of SYRIZA, takes the first place in the elections. It sounds an extreme scenario, but it should not be considered totally impossible. As the anti-memorandum options are now restricted for the voters, many who want to see a government that will truly fight against the neoliberal barbarism imposed by the creditors, even if this means the exit from eurozone, they will choose Popular Unity to avoid the extremes of Communist Party and Golden Dawn. In this case, there is a small possibility for a Popular Unity/SYRIZA coalition under Popular Unity terms which include a plan B for Grexit. It will be the worse scenario for the creditors as they will have to face a government determined even to leave euro. The domino effect will be closer than ever as the Portuguese and Spanish elections will follow shortly.

Scenario 5 : The first party is not able to form a government as the wider split of the political landscape (due to SYRIZA split), spreads the votes and reduces the power of the biggest parties. In that case, Greece may enter into a period of continuous political instability. The EFD will probably take advantage of this situation to promote, again, a government of technocrats-banking puppets. The Brussels-Berlin axis has already its man at the Bank of Greece. The governor, Yannis Stournaras, is ready to lead such a government under its orders.

Tsipras said recently that he considers New Democracy, PASOK and Potami parts of the old political system that ruined the country, and so, there is no way SYRIZA to cooperate with them. However, in the recent debate, he avoided to say clearly that he will not cooperate with PASOK and Potami.

Read also:

Various scenarios for the national elections in Greece

Additional note:
Under another scenario, New Democracy takes the first place and manages to form a coalition with PASOK and Potami. In such a case, there is no need for further analysis, we all know where that leads.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

The worst-case scenario for the US general election may lead to a working class civil war

globinfo freexchange
In June we wrote that various types of far-right armed groups, often self-described as "civil guard" who are Trump's paramilitary section, have now come to the front line in order to secure Trump's second term at any cost. Even if it takes a civil war.

We estimated that in the worst-case scenario, Trump loses marginally and his "brigades" take action as they are forming a loony army, driven by racism, ultra-conservative ideas and far-right extreme conspiracy theories. And therefore, they will certainly question the result of the election in that case.

Yet, another, even worse scenario as it seems, came up lately. It has been analyzed by a DNC think tank also funded by Michael Bloomberg. As axios.comreported:
A top Democratic data and analytics firm told "Axios on HBO" it's highly likely that President Trump will appear to have won — potentially in a landslide — on election night, even if he ultimately loses when all the…

At last: Nina Turner blows up the liberal machine, clearly pointing both neofascism and neoliberalism as the evils that the Left must fight until final victory

globinfo freexchange
It was about time. We thought it would take centuries until someone from the Left would dare to say the word "neoliberalism" inside the nest of the US liberal machine.
Nina Turner was meant to be the one who finally told the truth as clearly as she could:
                         Progressives are still on the mission, understanding very clearly that we got two dragons we got to slay. We got to slay the dragon of neofascism and slay the dragon of neoliberalism. 



That is, in purely political terms and ahead of the 2020 presidential election, progressives will have to fight against two monsters at the same time: Donald Trump (neofascism) and the corporate Dems/never-Trump Republicans alliance (neoliberalism). It would be almost impossible to defeat them both, without their own independent political party.

In essence, progressives will have to fight both factions of the capitalist class that are now involved in a peculiar civil war behind the scenes.

As we ex…

COVID-19 boosts a non-viable "economic" reality which proves that capitalism is already dead

globinfo freexchange
It's time to find another definition for the current dominant "economic" system because it's not capitalism for sure. Call it, say, 21st century corporate feudalism, or whatever you like. We can now be certain that capitalism is dead.
Yanis Varoufakis describes this new, bizarre situation perfectly:
                         In Britain, the news came out that the economy had suffered its greatest slump ever – more than 22% down during the first 7 months of 2020. Remarkably, on the same day, the London Stock Exchange, the FTSE100 index, rose by more than 2%. On the same day, during a time America has ground to a halt and is beginning to look like not just as an economy in deep trouble but also, ominously, as a failed state, Wall Street’s SP500 index hit an all-time record.
Financial capitalism has decoupled from the capitalist economy, skyrocketing out of Earth's orbit, leaving behind it broken lives & dreams. As the UK sinks into the worst …

Against the extradition of Julian Assange to the USA

DiEM25
Julian Assange has been imprisoned in the high-security HMP Belmarsh in London since April 11, 209, as he faces extradition to the United States, where he has been indicted on 18 counts for obtaining, possessing, conspiring to publish and for publishing classified information. With the first-ever use of the Espionage Act for a publisher, the indictment represents an unprecedented attack on press freedom around the world. For Julian Assange, who could face up to 175 years in prison, a conviction could be a death sentence.


Το Μητσοτακικό καθεστώς υποχωρεί ατάκτως σε όλα τα μέτωπα

globinfo freexchange
Ήδη από τον Φεβρουάριο είχαμε επισημάνει ότι το προσφυγικό ζήτημα ήταν αυτό που κυρίως επίσπευσε την αποκάλυψη της απόλυτης ένδειας του Μητσοτακικού καθεστώτος και την πλήρη ανικανότητά του να χειριστεί σχεδόν οποιοδήποτε πρόβλημα. 
Δυστυχώς, το χάος που επικρατεί στη Λέσβο μετά την καταστροφή στη Μόρια, επιβεβαίωσε πλήρως και πάλι αυτό το πλέον δεδομένο.
Όσον αφορά τα εθνικά, σοκ θα πρέπει να προκάλεσε στους παραδοσιακούς ψηφοφόρους της πατριωτικής δεξιάς η αποκάλυψη ότι ο Μητσοτάκης, μέσα από δικό του άρθρο, έκανε λόγο ακόμα και για «έγγραφη συμφωνία» μεταξύ Ελλάδας και Τουρκίας. Και όλα αυτά, παρά τις πομπώδεις διακηρύξεις στελεχών του καθεστώτος ότι δεν πρόκειται να γίνει διάλογος αν ο Ερντογάν δεν εγκαταλείψει τις εμπρηστικές ενέργειες και τη ρητορική των απειλών. 

Όπως φαίνεται, δυστυχώς είχαμε και σε αυτό δίκιο, καθώς ήδη από τον περσινό Ιούλιο γράφαμε ότι οι "σταχτοπούτες" της δεξιάς μεταμορφώθηκαν, εν μια νυκτί, από υπερασπιστές των πατριωτ…

Why the Bill Gates global health empire promises more empire and less public health

Behind a veil of corporate media PR, the Gates Foundation has served as a vehicle for Western capital while exploiting the Global South as a human laboratory. The coronavirus pandemic is likely to intensify this disturbing agenda.
by Jeremy Loffredo and Michele Greenstein
Part 12 - A centralized stockpile to “make WHO dependent on the goodwill of Big Pharma”
In October 2019, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security hosted “Event 201” in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Gates Foundation.
A former steering committee member of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security is now the Trump administration’s stockpile chief, and the CEO of Johns Hopkins Medicine is also on the board of directors at the pharmaceutical corporation Merck.
Event 201 was an exercise simulating the outbreak of a novel coronavirus. It included representatives from the U.S. National Security Council, as well as corporate leadership from drugmakers like Johnson & Johnson.
While similarities bet…

Declassified CIA doc proves Clinton administration had been informed about a potential 9/11-style attack at least since 1998

globinfo freexchange
In 2017, CIA published online nearly 13 million pages of declassified records, including papers on the US role in overthrowing foreign governments and the secret 'Star Gate' telepathy project.
A peculiar 1998 memo (President's daily brief) from the archive (under the title Bin Ladin Preparing To Hijack US Aircraft and Other Attacks), proves that Clinton administration had already been informed about a potential al-Qaeda 9/11-style operation.
Key parts:
Reporting suggest Bin Ladin and his allies are preparing for attacks in the US, including an aircraft hijacking to obtain the release of Shaykh Umar Abd al-Rahman, Ramzi Yousef, and Muhammad Sadiq Awda. 
One source quoted a senior member of the Gama at al-Islamiyya (IG) saying that, as of late October, the IG had completed planning for an operation in the US on behalf of Bin Ladin, but that the operation was on hold. A senior Bin Ladin operative from Saudi Arabia was to visit IG counterparts in the US soo…

Israel bombs Gaza every day since UAE normalization announced

The Grayzone
Red Lines host Anya Parampil speaks with Ali Abunimah, co-founder of the Electronic Intifada, about the recent announcement that Israel and the United Arab Emirates plan to normalize relations. They discuss the conditions which led to the deal as well as what the agreement will mean for Palestinians, particularly those in the besieged Gaza Strip.

NSA surveillance exposed by Snowden was illegal, court rules seven years on

Seven years after the former National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden blew the whistle on the mass surveillance of Americans’ telephone records, an appeals court has found the program was unlawful – and that the US intelligence leaders who publicly defended it were not telling the truth.
In a ruling handed down on Wednesday, the US court of appeals for the ninth circuit said the warrantless telephone dragnet that secretly collected millions of Americans’ telephone records violated the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act and may well have been unconstitutional.
Snowden, who fled to Russia in the aftermath of the 2013 disclosures and still faces US espionage charges, said on Twitter that the ruling was a vindication of his decision to go public with evidence of the National Security Agency’s domestic eavesdropping operation.
I never imagined that I would live to see our courts condemn the NSA’s activities as unlawful and in the same ruling credit me for exposing them,” Snow…

The OAS accusation of electoral fraud against Evo Morales is bullshit — and now we have the data to prove it

The day after the Bolivian election, the Organization of American States suggested the result was fraudulent — then took months to provide any proof. Last month, it finally released its data — and researchers at the Center for Economic and Policy Research found a basic coding error that destroys the OAS’s case against Morales.
by David Rosnick 
Part 2 - Unjustly Forced Out
The damage, of course, had already been done. On November 11, 2019, Bolivia’s president, Evo Morales — his term not yet complete — stepped down from the presidency amid allegations of fraud. Decisive was the report from the OAS, which had just presented its preliminary findings in a binding audit of the October 20 election. These findings were not favorable to Morales, questioning his official first-round victory.
Members of the opposition, some of whom had been saying all along that Morales and his Movement Toward Socialism (MAS-IPSP) party would attempt fraud to stay in power, took to the streets in violent protest.…