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17 September, 2015

Scenarios for the next day of the snap elections in Greece

by system failure

Although SYRIZA retreat to the European Financial Dictatorship (EFD) and the subsequent split of the Leftist party, leaves little room for someone to make safe predictions for the result of Sunday's snap elections in Greece, it would be worth to make an attempt to predict the next day through some possible scenarios.

Briefly:

Scenario 1 : SYRIZA takes the first place and Independent Greeks manage to enter the new parliament. In case that they gather the adequate number of MPs, they will form a coalition government. This would be actually the continuing of previous coalition. In that case, Greece's creditors will take for granted that the Greek people accept the 3rd catastrophic memorandum which was signed by Tsipras and they will force the new government to imply every detail under the tight control of EFD's mechanisms.

Scenario 2 : SYRIZA takes the first place, but Independent Greeks do not gather the necessary percentage to enter the new parliament. Berlin and Brussels bureaufascists will be happier in such a case because this will be the most suitable situation to see things progressing according to their plans. It will be a good chance to finish what they have started, forcing SYRIZA to cooperate with the neoliberal parties PASOK and Potami (River) and therefore, implement every last detail of the cruel neoliberal experiment in Greece. After Greece's destruction they can continue to the whole eurozone. Although PASOK and Potami are in essence neoliberal parties, they are self-determined as Center-Left and this is necessary for this possible coalition government (SYRIZA-PASOK-Potami) to be presented to the public as "progressive".

Scenario 3 : This will be an alternative to scenario 2 in case that SYRIZA, PASOK and Potami will not manage to gather the necessary seats to form coalition. New Democracy will have to join them under a wider coalition, to implement the third memorandum deal. This would not be such a preferable situation for the Brussels-Berlin axis, as it would be probably unstable. There are still remnants inside SYRIZA which stand far from the moderate core of the party, feeling closer to the radical Left. These have certainly huge ideological differences with the far-Right part of New Democracy. They may all have been bound to the implementation of the third memorandum, but an "accident" inside this probable government-zombie (as himself Alexis Tsipras characterized it recently), should not be considered impossible.

Scenario 4 : Popular Unity, the new party that was formed after the split of SYRIZA, takes the first place in the elections. It sounds an extreme scenario, but it should not be considered totally impossible. As the anti-memorandum options are now restricted for the voters, many who want to see a government that will truly fight against the neoliberal barbarism imposed by the creditors, even if this means the exit from eurozone, they will choose Popular Unity to avoid the extremes of Communist Party and Golden Dawn. In this case, there is a small possibility for a Popular Unity/SYRIZA coalition under Popular Unity terms which include a plan B for Grexit. It will be the worse scenario for the creditors as they will have to face a government determined even to leave euro. The domino effect will be closer than ever as the Portuguese and Spanish elections will follow shortly.

Scenario 5 : The first party is not able to form a government as the wider split of the political landscape (due to SYRIZA split), spreads the votes and reduces the power of the biggest parties. In that case, Greece may enter into a period of continuous political instability. The EFD will probably take advantage of this situation to promote, again, a government of technocrats-banking puppets. The Brussels-Berlin axis has already its man at the Bank of Greece. The governor, Yannis Stournaras, is ready to lead such a government under its orders.

Tsipras said recently that he considers New Democracy, PASOK and Potami parts of the old political system that ruined the country, and so, there is no way SYRIZA to cooperate with them. However, in the recent debate, he avoided to say clearly that he will not cooperate with PASOK and Potami.

Read also:

Various scenarios for the national elections in Greece

Additional note:
Under another scenario, New Democracy takes the first place and manages to form a coalition with PASOK and Potami. In such a case, there is no need for further analysis, we all know where that leads.

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