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Grexit, Brexit and the new “sharing”

Take what you can and run: US and Russia anxious to take their European "rewards" in Cold War 2.0

by system failure

If history indeed repeats itself, even "as farce", we could witness an altered version of what has been decided by the winners after the end of the WWII, and, right before the start of the Cold War 1.0.

During the Yalta Conference, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Winston Churchill and Joseph Stalin, effectively decided how they should shape their spheres of influence in Europe. They agreed, for example, that Greece would have to be included in the Western sphere of influence, while Bulgaria, in the Soviet one.

Today, we may see a similar scenario during the ongoing global economic war. Some of the roles have changed. In today's multipolar world, Russia does not represent the Communist ideology, USA is not the superpower that it used to be, and Britain could only be in a position to choose camp rather than to be a global player, as it was in the past.

The global neoliberal dictatorship, represented by the biggest corporate and banking cartels, will do anything to prevent a disastrous Brexit, or, Grexit scenario because they are trying to build a new world order through the dissolution of nation-states, to secure their interests in the era of technological and financial globalization. However, their basic tools, like the ECB and the IMF, are making big mistakes due to their anxiety to impose the most catastrophic neoliberal policies, especially in the eurozone. They managed to wake up anti-European emotions in many countries. Day by day, more Europeans discover the image of a repulsive Europe.

It is remarkable that Cameron was showing Greece to the voters, in pre-election speeches, as an example of what the European "empire" could do to Britain, and promised a referendum for the people to decide whether Britain should stay in the EU. Yet, ideologically he is actually identical to the ruling political class in Brussels and Berlin. His government is about to destroy what was left from the social state in Britain and implement the most cruel austerity policies.

Cameron will probably be forced to retreat on his promise to Britons under the pressure of the global elites (maggies-ghost-returns-to-britain) but under these circumstances, an "accident" for their plans would not be impossible to happen. According to an alternative scenario, both Brexit and Grexit become a fact.

As Britain senses that lost its role in the German-dominated European empire, it would be happy to leave and return permanently to its "physical" ally, the US. The relations between the US and Germany are probably in the worst position after decades (us-cuts-spying-cooperation-with-germany , who-is-considered-ostensible-ally-by-us), and the US are also unhappy with the German domination in the economic level because it sets in danger a unified Europe who serves their interests. In case they could not prevent Brexit, they will compromise with what they can take: an old, traditional and faithful ally in the new Cold War, maintaining much of their military presence in Europe.

On the other hand, the German political elite and the eurocrats play with fire, as they blackmail the economically devastated Greece, insisting on the same neoliberal policies that ruined the country. Greece may be forced to escape the eurozone prison and return to national currency in order to survive. The Russians will not waste the chance. They will offer an alternative through BRICS (evolving-fast-greece-closer-to-brics), and grab the opportunity for geopolitical expansion in the East Mediterranean, mainly through the game of the pipelines (fresh-smart-moves-by-putin-in).

The Russians already "put foot" in the East Mediterranean (mission-accomplished-russians-put-foot), while recently, the Russian together with the Chinese fleet made a power demonstration during common drills in Mediterranean (china-russia-drill-in-mediterranean). In case of Grexit, Greece could slip towards the Sino-Russian sphere of influence.

In the middle of all this situation, Germany could see Europe torn apart. The Germans make the same mistake again and again. They tried to prevail through an economic war this time, using their economic superiority. Obviously, they underestimated the new conditions in the global multipolar world and became overconfident on their power for one more time.

The new "sharing" of Europe, in case of Grexit/Brexit, will be quite different this time. It will not come after an agreement between superpowers, as it happened in 1945. It will rather come in terms of "take what you can and run". Moreover, it will not come after the end of a world war. It will come in the middle of an economic war and a new cold war. All these facts, make the "sharing" process much more dangerous.

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