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Νέα τακτική ΔΝΤ: καλύτερα αναξιόπιστοι παρά υπηρέτες συμφερόντων

του system failure

Πληθαίνουν οι αποκαλύψεις στελεχών ή πρώην στελεχών του ΔΝΤ το τελευταίο διάστημα σχετικά με την παραδοχή ότι το ταμείο απέτυχε όσον αφορά τους στόχους που είχε θέσει για την ανάκαμψη της Ελληνικής οικονομίας και την έξοδο από την κρίση χρέους.

Μετά την δήλωση του Παναγιώτη Ρουμελιώτη - πρώην εκπροσώπου της Ελλάδας στο ΔΝΤ - στους NY Times, ότι το ΔΝΤ γνώριζε πως το πρόγραμμα για την Ελλάδα ήταν αδύνατο να εφαρμοστεί καθώς δεν υπήρξε πουθενά επιτυχές παράδειγμα, δήλωση που έγινε βέβαια καθαρά για λόγους αποπροσανατολισμού (http://failedevolution.blogspot.gr/2012/10/blog-post_5.html), ήρθε η σειρά του Ολιβιέ Μπλανσάρ, υψηλόβαθμου στελέχους του Ταμείου, να παραδεχθεί μέσα από μια έκθεση που είδε το φως της δημοσιότητας, ότι το Ταμείο μαζί με το σύνολο των Ευρωπαίων ηγετών, των υπουργών οικονομίας, της Κομισιόν και της ΕΚΤ, έκαναν σοβαρό λάθος στους υπολογισμούς τους, υποτιμώντας τις καταστροφικές συνέπειες των πολιτικών λιτότητας που επέβαλαν στα υπερχρεωμένα κράτη.

Όσο και αν φαίνεται παράξενο, πρόκειται για μια διορθωτική κίνηση από πλευράς ΔΝΤ. Καθώς το Ταμείο έχει απολέσει πλήρως την αξιοπιστία του μετά τις αποτυχημένες πολιτικές που εφάρμοσε σε πλήθος περιπτώσεων στο παρελθόν, οι υπεύθυνοί του μάλλον θεώρησαν ότι πρέπει να στρογγυλέψουν “χοντροκομμένες” δηλώσεις, όπως αυτή του Ρουμελιώτη, εκδηλώνοντας μια νέα κρίση ειλικρίνειας μήπως και συμμαζέψουν τα ασυμμάζευτα. Η κίνηση αυτή έγινε για τρεις βασικούς λόγους:

Πρώτον, καθώς το ΔΝΤ έχει προ πολλού χάσει έτσι και αλλιώς την αξιοπιστία του και καθώς λόγω της πρόσφατης μεγάλης οικονομικής κρίσης και της επέκτασής της σε μια οικονομικά ανεπτυγμένη περιοχή όπως η ευρωζώνη, έχει τραβήξει τα βλέμματα της κοινής γνώμης πάνω του, προσπαθεί να αλλάξει στάση δίνοντας βαρύτητα στον επικοινωνιακό τομέα και να παρουσιάσει μια διαφορετική εικόνα τουλάχιστον όσον αφορά την αδιαλλαξία των στελεχών του. Είναι γνωστή η στενοκεφαλιά που διέκρινε πολλά στελέχη του στο παρελθόν σχετικά με τις πολιτικές που έπρεπε να εφαρμοστούν σε διάφορες περιπτώσεις, καθώς επέμεναν, με μια ανεξήγητη πολλές φορές εμμονή και με μια αλαζονική στάση, στην εφαρμογή συγκεκριμένων μέτρων που έφερναν πάντα καταστροφικά αποτελέσματα για τις οικονομίες των χωρών στις οποίες εφαρμόζονταν. Ο Γιόζεφ Στίγκλιτς στο βιβλίο του “Η μεγάλη αυταπάτη”, περιγράφει χαρακτηριστικά παραδείγματα αυτής της συμπεριφοράς, καθώς και τα καταστροφικά αποτελέσματα που την ακολουθούσαν. Οι κρίσεις ειλικρίνειας και παραδοχής λαθών βοηθούν στο να αλλάξει αυτή η εικόνα.

Δεύτερον, καθώς η κρίση χρέους στην ευρωζώνη παίρνει ανεξέλεγκτες διαστάσεις, το ΔΝΤ θέλει να συμπεριλάβει ως εξίσου συνυπεύθυνους και άλλους παράγοντες όπως τα διάφορα όργανα της ΕΕ και την ΕΚΤ, αφού η συνεχιζόμενη κρίση στην ευρωζώνη και η χειροτέρευση των δημοσιονομικών τουλάχιστον στις χώρες της περιφέρειας προμηνύουν άσχημες εξελίξεις. Όταν η κρίση περάσει στην καρδιά της ευρωζώνης με απρόβλεπτες συνέπειες, το ΔΝΤ δεν θέλει σε καμιά περίπτωση να παίξει το ρόλο του αποκλειστικά υπευθύνου γι'αυτή την κατάσταση. Βέβαια είναι αλήθεια ότι για την κατάσταση στην ευρωζώνη ευθύνονται και οι εφαρμοζόμενες πολιτικές της ΕΕ και της ΕΚΤ.

Τρίτον, η “διαρροή” με μορφή τεχνικής έκθεσης, καθώς και η ομολογία ότι πρόκειται για λάθος στους υπολογισμούς με την αναφορά και στον συγκεκριμένο συντελεστή γνωστό με το όνομα “πολλαπλασιαστής”, έχει σαν στόχο να πείσει ότι πρόκειται για καθαρά υπολογιστικό λάθος, βασισμένο σε λάθος εκτιμήσεις, προκειμένου να κατοχυρωθεί το γεγονός ότι το ΔΝΤ λειτουργεί καθαρά τεχνοκρατικά και ότι τα καταστροφικά αποτελέσματα οφείλονται αποκλειστικά σε λάθος υπολογισμούς και εκτιμήσεις και όχι στην απόπειρα εξυπηρέτησης συγκεκριμένων τραπεζικών και κερδοσκοπικών συμφερόντων.

Όμως είναι γνωστός σε πολλούς ο ρόλος του ΔΝΤ στην Ασιατική κρίση στα τέλη της δεκαετίας του 90, όπου τα δάνεια που έδωσε χρησιμοποιήθηκαν για να σωθούν οι δυτικοί επενδυτές, ενώ οι πολιτικές που εφαρμόστηκαν, βύθισαν σε μεγαλύτερη ύφεση χώρες της ΝΑ Ασίας και διόγκωσαν το δημόσιο χρέος με όλα τα παρελκόμενα, όπως αύξηση της φτώχιας και της ανεργίας.

Και τελικά, η καταστροφή στην οικονομία, η αυξανόμενη φτώχεια και ανεργία, είναι πράγματα που έχουν αληθινές και σοβαρές συνέπειες στις ζωές εκατομμυρίων ανθρώπων. Και έτσι, η νέα ομολογία του Μπλανσάρ, δεν μπορεί να φανεί σαν μια δήλωση ειλικρινούς παραδοχής λαθεμένων χειρισμών, αλλά σαν μια ακόμα κυνική και αλαζονική συμπεριφορά εκ μέρους του ΔΝΤ.

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